Turkish dried apricots: slow start, firm growers, upside into year-end

The Turkish dried apricot season has started slowly, with growers limiting sales at current Turkish lira levels, yet export activity in August–September already topping 10,300 tons and expected to accelerate toward year-end. After a hesitant opening, the market is caught between weak spot demand and producer resistance to prevailing prices. Growers are only selling what is necessary, pointing to higher production costs and the absence of a price intervention or benchmark from the Turkish Grain Board. At the same time, early-season export figures are solid and exporters anticipate stronger shipments in the final quarter. Domestic price spreads are wide across calibers, and producers are increasingly relying on high-value apricot kernels to support farm income.

Prices

In local Turkish markets and commodity exchanges, dried apricot prices currently span a broad range from 245 TL to 440 TL depending on quality and size, a band growers still consider below target levels. Despite this, export prices in US dollars are higher than in previous seasons, but rising on-farm costs are eroding margins.

FOB Malatya quotations for sulphured Turkish dried apricots are broadly steady, with no. 8 at 5.8 EUR/kg, no. 7 at 6.0 EUR/kg and no. 6 at 6.1 EUR/kg, all FOB Malatya. Higher calibers command the usual premium, with no. 4 at 6.6 EUR/kg and no. 1 at 7.3 EUR/kg, FOB Malatya. Organic and unsulphured lines remain significantly higher, for example unsulphured no. 1 at 8.3 EUR/kg FOB Malatya.

Supply & Demand

Supply from Malatya and other Turkish regions is ample following a normal crop, but the commercial flow has been deliberately throttled as producers protest low price realizations and missing guidance from the Turkish Grain Board. Chambers of Agriculture have publicly urged the Board to announce benchmark levels and begin procurement to shore up farmgate prices.

On the demand side, early-season buying has been cautious. Nonetheless, exports for August and September reached 10,300 tons, confirming that international customers are present even if they avoid bidding aggressively. Market participants expect an improvement in buying interest and export volumes toward the end of the year as destination pipelines need replenishment and seasonal demand improves.

Fundamentals & Costs

Producers highlight that their production costs have risen in line with broader inflation, so the current TL price band is viewed as insufficient despite higher USD export prices compared with previous years. This margin squeeze explains their strategy of restricting sales and supporting calls for state-backed price intervention.

Quality differentiation is stark: better calibers and well-prepared fruit can still achieve the upper end of the 245–440 TL range, while lower grades clear only at discounted levels. Alongside whole fruit, apricot kernels have become an increasingly important revenue stream due to their high export value and resilient domestic demand, partially offsetting weak returns on dried fruit for some growers.

Short-Term Outlook

Looking into late Q4 2026, expectations center on a gradual firming of both prices and export volumes. As exporters work through existing contracts and destination stocks normalize, growers are likely to maintain a cautious selling pace in the hope of capturing higher prices later in the season.

The key swing factor remains whether the Turkish Grain Board will step in with procurement and price benchmarks. Any intervention would likely underpin local prices and could translate into a slightly higher floor for FOB quotations. In the absence of such support, the market may stay range-bound but with a mild upward bias as export programs build.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers with nearby needs may consider covering a portion of Q4 and early 2027 requirements at current FOB levels, which remain historically competitive while grower selling is still limited.
• Growers and packers should remain selective in sales, prioritizing higher value calibers and kernels while monitoring any announcements from the Turkish Grain Board that could shift bargaining power.
• Industrial users can explore blends and partial substitution toward lower calibers or diced product, taking advantage of the relatively softer pricing there versus premium jumbo sizes.

3-Day Price Indication

• Turkey FOB Malatya/Ankara: Dried apricots sulphured no. 6–8 expected to trade broadly sideways around current quoted EUR levels over the next three days.
• Europe FCA (Netherlands, Poland): Local FCA prices for Turkish-origin dried apricots likely to remain stable to slightly soft as stocks are comfortable and buyers are in no rush.