Turkish Dried Apricots: Supply Growth Meets Sluggish Demand

Prices in the Turkish dried apricot market are under clear downward pressure as supply expands faster than demand, leaving both producers and exporters struggling to move volume. The Malatya region is highly active in terms of orchards and product availability, but this has not translated into dynamic trade. Tree numbers and potential supply continue to rise, yet export volumes are stagnant and buyers lost last season have not returned. With state purchases via TMO remaining limited and demand weak in both export and domestic channels, prices are easing and sellers are increasingly reluctant to accept current bids, resulting in slow sales and growing on‑farm and exporter stocks.

Prices

Weak demand is weighing on quotations along the Turkish dried apricot chain. In Malatya, FOB offers for conventional unsulphured dried apricots are stable but under pressure, with for example no. 1 unsulphured at EUR 8.3 FCA/FOB MALATYA and no. 3 unsulphured at EUR 8.15 FOB MALATYA. Organic unsulphured grades remain at a premium, with no. 1 organic at EUR 9.2 FOB MALATYA and no. 2 organic at EUR 9.1 FOB MALATYA.

In Europe, nearby warehouse levels also show a softening trend. In Dordrecht, FCA prices for Turkish dried apricots have edged down in recent updates: Size No. 0 is at EUR 7.05, Size No. 1 at EUR 7.00 and Size No. 2 at EUR 6.75 FCA NL. Smaller sizes follow the same pattern, with Size No. 5 at EUR 6.50 and Size No. 8 at EUR 6.00 FCA NL. Diced apricot cubes 8–10 mm are quoted at EUR 3.80 FCA Dordrecht.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, the apricot tree population in Malatya keeps expanding, translating into structurally higher potential output. This structural growth is not matched by market absorption, leading to ample raw material availability and firm stocks of finished product.

Demand, by contrast, remains disappointing. Export volumes have failed to grow and are essentially stagnant, and customers who reduced or stopped buying in the previous season have not been won back this year. The domestic Turkish market mirrors this weakness, with limited offtake at current levels.

Fundamentals

Low demand combined with only modest intervention by TMO means there is little support on the floor of the market. State purchases are insufficient to absorb the surplus tonnage, so sellers face a choice between accepting lower prices or carrying more stock into later in the season.

Producers, however, are hesitant to sell aggressively at today’s lower prices. Many prefer to hold inventory in the hope of improved demand or supportive policy moves later on. This stand‑off contributes to slow physical turnover, even though the notional availability is high.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

In the short term, the balance of risks for prices remains skewed to the downside as long as export demand does not recover and TMO remains a marginal buyer. A sustained improvement would likely require either successful diversification into new export markets or a visible pick‑up from existing key buyers.

• Importers/packers: Consider staggered buying on dips rather than large forward coverage, as current fundamentals favour buyers but liquidity is patchy.
• Exporters in Malatya: Prioritise market development and customer retention, even at tight margins, to avoid further loss of demand share.
• Producers: Evaluate storage costs and financing against the realistic prospects of price recovery; selective sales on any short‑term rallies may reduce risk.

3‑Day Price Indication

• Malatya/Ankara FOB unsulphured and sulphured: sideways to slightly softer, with offers already at low levels and limited fresh demand.
• EU (Dordrecht, Lodz) FCA stocks: mild downward bias as sellers compete for limited spot interest.