Turkish Dried Figs: Quality Up, Sentiment Soft as Market Waits for TMO

Producers of Turkish dried figs enter the 2026/27 season with better quality fruit but muted confidence. Prices are edging higher, yet volumes and TMO intervention levels remain uncertain, keeping both growers and exporters in a wait-and-see mode. After a strong new-crop quality start, the Turkish dried fig market is shaped by cautious producers, modestly firmer FOB quotations and an active push to diversify export destinations. While Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, the concentration in traditional European and US markets is driving the Aegean Dried Fruits and Products Exporters' Association to court fast-growing destinations such as India. Until TMO announces its reference figures and the first export date, trading is expected to stay thin, with buyers testing small volumes and sellers reluctant to commit large tonnages.

Prices

FOB quotations in İzmir for organic Turkish dried figs are slightly firmer versus early September, reflecting good quality and limited forward selling rather than aggressive demand. Key current indications in EUR, FOB:

Conventional chopped figs and cubes show similarly small upticks, with Turkish figs (chopped whole No. 8/9) at 10.80 EUR FOB İzmir and organic fig cubes at 9.70 EUR FOB İzmir on 18 September 2026. Spanish organic "Spanish Gold" figs are quoted at 10.90 EUR FOB Madrid, broadly stable but below premium Turkish organics, underlining Turkey’s continued price leadership in higher grades.

Supply & Demand

Producers report that 2026 crop dried fig quality is expected to surpass last season, helped by generally favourable weather in main Aegean growing areas earlier in the season. However, producers remain disheartened because it is unclear whether export volumes will match expectations, and liquidity on the farm side is constrained pending TMO’s price and programme announcements.

Turkey continues to dominate global dried fig supply, accounting for roughly half of world production in recent seasons, with the Aegean region (Aydın and İzmir) as the key cluster. Medium-term projections from the international nut and dried fruit industry point to a larger 2025/26 global supply led by higher Turkish output, implying comfortable availability if export demand does not accelerate in parallel. 

On the demand side, exports of Turkish dried fruit remain heavily concentrated in Europe and North America, but Turkish exporters are actively working to diversify. In H1 2026, dried fruit exports from Turkey reached around 752 million USD, with the Aegean exporters’ union contributing the bulk and highlighting dried figs as a core item.  Concern that traditional markets may not absorb larger volumes at current price levels is pushing exporters to seek new outlets.

Trade Flows & India Focus

Against this backdrop, the Aegean Dried Fruits and Products Exporters' Association is stepping up market development in India. From 14 to 19 September 2026, it hosted an "India Sectoral Procurement Delegation" across İzmir and Gaziantep, bringing representatives from seven major Indian dried fruit and nut companies together with more than 20 Turkish exporters for about 150 B2B meetings.

This initiative aims to boost visibility and export volumes of Turkish dried figs (alongside raisins, apricots and pistachios) in a fast-growing, relatively underpenetrated market. The Association has stated that India is a strategic focus within its broader drive to diversify beyond Europe and the US, following similar trade missions to other Asian hubs earlier this month. 

For now, both producers and exporters are waiting for TMO’s forthcoming figures and the official date for first exports. This policy uncertainty is limiting firm long-term contracts, as exporters are cautious about overcommitting volumes before knowing the state’s reference framework and possible stock role in the market.

Weather & Crop Conditions

For the week of 22–28 September 2026, the Turkish State Meteorological Service forecasts partly to very cloudy conditions with scattered showers over much of the Aegean region, including İzmir and inland fig-growing areas.  At this late stage of the drying and post-harvest period, moderate rain mainly affects logistical operations (drying patios, on-farm handling, transport) rather than yield, but persistent wetness could complicate late-season drying and increase sorting needs.

Marine forecasts for the Aegean coast indicate generally manageable conditions for coastal shipping and port operations between 22 and 24 September.  Overall, no extreme weather threats are visible in the very short term, supporting the expectation of a high-quality crop, although localised showers may temporarily slow product movement from interior warehouses to export terminals.

Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

Fundamentally, the market stands at the start of the export season with:

• Improved crop quality versus last year, especially in Aegean-origin premium grades.
• Unresolved questions over final exportable volume and TMO intervention strategy, delaying large-scale sales.
• Stable-to-firm prices in EUR terms, moving only a few eurocents higher over recent weeks across leading organic grades in İzmir.

Internationally, comfortable projected global supply and diversified origins (Iran, Afghanistan, Spain, Greece, US) should cap any sharp price spikes in the absence of weather shocks.  Yet Turkey’s quality premium and its role as price setter for Mediterranean dried figs mean that TMO decisions and Aegean exporters’ pricing will remain the key benchmarks for the 2026/27 campaign.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Expect a relatively quiet market with limited liquidity until TMO announces figures and the first export date. Prices are biased slightly upward given good quality and restrained selling, but major moves are unlikely before policy clarity.
• Exporters: Use the current window to deepen relationships in India and other non-traditional markets, converting the recent B2B meetings into trial shipments. Avoid overcommitting volumes until state-related parameters are clear.
• Importers / industrial buyers: Those with secure demand into Q4 and early 2027 may consider small cover at today’s levels, especially in higher organic grades where Turkish availability could tighten if India and other new markets gain traction.
• Producers: Given quality premiums and modest upward price drift, holding a portion of stock until after TMO’s announcement may be justified, provided on-farm storage and cash-flow conditions allow.

3‑Day Directional Price View

• İzmir, organic dried figs (Mini, Lerida No. 4, Protoben No. 4/5, FOB): Slightly firm to steady over the next 3 days, with bid–offer spreads likely to narrow once more guidance emerges on TMO timing.
• Spanish organic figs (Spanish Gold, FOB Madrid): Steady, tracking Turkish benchmarks but buffered by domestic dynamics.
• Conventional Turkish figs (Malatya, various Lerida and natural grades, FOB): Largely stable; any immediate moves will stem more from logistics and short-term weather than from fundamentals.