Turkish Dried Figs: Record Crop Meets Producer Frustration and Quality Risks

Producers of Turkish dried figs face a record crop and intense domestic price pressures, while export demand and margins lag, squeezed further by strict food‑safety controls and costly reprocessing of returned lots. The new 2026/27 season opens with a high harvest of around 94,000 tons and broadly stable FOB offers, but the mood among growers is sour. A massive gap between farm‑gate and retail prices, weak export volumes and rising ochratoxin‑related rejections are defining this campaign. At the same time, authorities are tightening inspections in key production hubs such as Aydın to protect Turkey’s position in premium destination markets. For buyers, the combination of ample supply and quality risks translates into attractive, but highly selective, purchasing opportunities.

Prices

Despite grower complaints about low returns, export prices in EUR remain stable. Conventional dried figs from Malatya are currently indicated at FOB levels of EUR 7.60/kg for Lerida No. 7 (ID 73), EUR 7.80/kg for Natural No. 6 (ID 72) and EUR 8.20/kg for Natural No. 5 (ID 71), unchanged compared with previous quotations. Lerida grades show a structured price curve by size, starting around EUR 6.15/kg FOB Malatya for Lerida No. 7 and moving up to EUR 7.65/kg for Lerida No. 1.

Organic and specialty products from İzmir command a clear premium. Organic Lerida No. 4 is offered at EUR 14.85/kg FOB İzmir, organic fig cubes at EUR 9.70/kg, and organic "Mini" dried figs at EUR 16.15/kg, underlining tight certified supply and higher processing costs. Chopped whole No. 8/9 figs (non‑organic) from İzmir are at EUR 10.50/kg FOB, slightly down from earlier in October, suggesting some downward adjustment as the large crop and cautious demand meet.

Supply & Demand

The dried fig sector has entered a dynamic phase driven mainly by domestic Turkish trade rather than exports. Growers report deep dissatisfaction with the value distribution: according to an October chamber report, producers receive around 135 TL/kg while average retail prices reach 585.41 TL/kg, placing dried figs among the products with the steepest price increases between farm and shelf. This gap contributes to mounting political and social pressure within producing regions.

On the supply side, the 2026/27 Turkish crop is estimated at about 94,000 tons, the highest in recent years and clearly above recent low‑harvest seasons. Exporters aim to use this abundant volume to boost exports beyond last season’s levels. However, season‑to‑date export data still show underwhelming figures and weak weekly shipments, indicating that ample availability has not yet translated into strong external demand, partly due to cautious buying and tighter quality screenings at destination ports.

Fundamentals & Quality

Quality and food safety are at the heart of this season’s fundamentals. Authorities have intensified operations against counterfeit and substandard foods, including seizures of dried figs stored under improper conditions in Aydın. At the same time, rigorous inspections are being applied to minimise export rejections, yet the industry has already faced returns this season linked to aflatoxin and, increasingly, ochratoxin. Recent market reports point to ochratoxin as the main challenge in 2026/27, with exporters forced to re‑process or downgrade returned lots, raising costs and slowing shipment flows.

Despite these efforts, EU border notifications earlier this year highlighted aflatoxin and ochratoxin A in dried figs and fig dices from Turkey, keeping importers vigilant about supplier selection and lot‑by‑lot documentation. As a result, buyers are concentrating volumes with processors that can demonstrate robust HACCP‑based systems, laboratory capacity and strong sorting and fumigation protocols. For exporters, maintaining competitive prices while absorbing additional testing and reprocessing costs is constraining margins, especially as farm‑gate prices remain firm in local currency terms.

Weather & Crop Conditions

The record 94,000‑ton harvest reflects generally favourable growing conditions in core production areas around Aydın and the broader Aegean region. Current November forecasts for Aydın suggest mild, seasonally cool weather with daytime highs mostly in the upper teens to low 20s °C and cooler nights. National forecasts indicate temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms in western Turkey, with precipitation at or above normal for the Aegean, supporting soil moisture but also requiring continued care in storage and transport to avoid re‑humidification of dried fruit.

At this stage of the marketing year, the main weather‑related risks shift from on‑tree development to post‑harvest handling. Episodes of higher humidity or unseasonal rain can exacerbate mycotoxin problems if warehouses and container loading facilities are not adequately ventilated and monitored. Given the already heightened concerns around ochratoxin and aflatoxin, logistics and storage discipline remain critical for preserving exportable quality throughout the winter shipping window.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With export figures still disappointing relative to the large crop, exporters are keeping EUR offers competitive to stimulate demand. At the same time, producers see little benefit from the strong harvest because the farm‑retail price spread remains extreme, and additional quality‑related costs are not fully shared along the chain. Unless external demand accelerates meaningfully, the market is likely to remain a buyer’s market in volume terms, but with selective tightness in high‑spec and organic categories.

• For importers: Use current stable FOB levels to cover nearby and part of medium‑term needs with reputable Turkish packers, prioritising suppliers with proven mycotoxin control, full traceability and strong inspection records. Negotiate quality‑linked clauses rather than pushing only for lower prices.
• For retailers and brands: Be aware of producer discontent over margins and highlight fair‑trade or origin‑linked initiatives where possible. Secure consistent specifications early, particularly for organic and specialty presentations, where premiums are firm.
• For producers and exporters: Focus on minimising rejections through rigorous grading, drying and storage practices, as each returned lot erodes already compressed margins. Collaborative programs with testing labs and state agencies can help protect market access and support volume growth.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (Key FOB Origins)

• Turkey – Malatya (conventional dried figs): Prices expected to remain stable over the next three days, with buyers showing interest but no strong upward pressure.
• Turkey – İzmir (organic and specialty figs): Stable to slightly firm tone as limited certified supply and ongoing quality concerns support current EUR premiums.
• Spain – Madrid (organic Spanish Gold figs): Stable indications, with trade volumes modest and largely driven by niche European demand.