Turkish dried figs: strong start, stable prices and Asia-led export push

Exports of Turkish dried figs have opened the 2026/27 season on a strong footing, with earlier-than-usual first shipments, stable raw material prices and a high-quality, abundant crop underpinning a bullish export outlook. The market is being driven by robust demand from both traditional and fast-growing destinations. Established outlets such as the United States, Germany and France continue to absorb significant volumes, while exports to China have increased markedly and wider Asian demand is gaining momentum. With export volumes expected to exceed 60,000 tons this season and a record national crop, the overall supply picture is ample but so far well-balanced by demand and disciplined pricing from producers and Tariş. Forward-looking promotional efforts in Japan suggest that Asia will remain the key incremental growth engine for Turkish dried figs over the medium term.

Prices

Farm-gate raw material prices have held in a tight 200–250 TL band in recent weeks, supported by Tariş’s early October purchase price announcement, which has anchored grower expectations and limited downside pressure despite the large crop. Export quotations in EUR for conventional Turkish dried figs (Malatya, FOB) are essentially flat compared with mid-October, indicating that the stronger physical supply has not yet translated into discounting.

Higher count natural figs command a visible premium, with No: 1–2 natural at 9.6 and 9.4 EUR FOB Malatya, respectively, while Lerida types are trading at lower absolute levels but have also remained unchanged since mid-October. Organic and specialty products from İzmir, such as organic Lerida No. 4 at 14.85 EUR FOB and Mini organic dried figs at 16.15 EUR FOB, show a substantial organic and format premium that has also been stable over recent updates. The absence of week-on-week movements across these benchmarks underlines the current price consolidation phase after Tariş’s season-opening signal.

Supply & Demand

The 2026/27 Turkish dried fig crop is described as both high quality and abundant, with expectations that exports will exceed 60,000 tons. Against the backdrop of a record national dried-fig harvest, this implies that a significant share of the crop will move into export channels, reducing the risk of heavy end-season inventories if current shipment pace is maintained. Harvest and drying conditions in the Aegean fig belt have been favourable overall, supporting good calibrations and colour.

On the demand side, traditional key markets in Europe and North America remain solid, with the United States, Germany and France still among the main destinations for Turkish dried figs. The standout growth story this season is Asia: exports to China have risen noticeably, and broader Asian demand is strengthening, helped by rising middle-class incomes and greater familiarity with Mediterranean dried fruit. In addition, the Aegean Exporters' Associations are actively positioning Turkish food products, including figs, to capture more of Japan’s sizeable import market of around USD 80 billion annually, creating medium-term upside for shipments into high-value East Asian channels.

Fundamentals & Logistics

Fundamentally, the early opening of the export window this year has helped to clear supply quickly, easing storage constraints and supporting steady processor throughput. Exports started earlier than usual in the season, and the combination of strong first shipments and firm Tariş farm-gate prices has reassured growers that the market can absorb the larger crop without a price collapse. Processors are thus able to plan packing programmes with more confidence, particularly for calibrated natural figs destined for premium retail packs.

Stock levels at origin are ample, but the stable price environment and good quality have so far attracted sufficient international buying interest, preventing a build-up of unsold material. In terms of product mix, Lerida and natural types from Malatya, as well as organic and value-added forms from İzmir, ensure that Turkish exporters can target multiple price points and segments, from industrial users to high-end retail customers. Freight and logistics conditions are relatively normal, with no major disruptions reported in outbound flows from Aegean ports.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Looking ahead to the coming weeks, the main risk factor on the supply side is not immediate availability—since inventories are comfortable—but rather the pace of export sales. If demand from Asia and core European markets remains as strong as in the opening phase, the market is likely to stay balanced and prices broadly stable. Promotional initiatives around the planned Turkish national participation in Foodex Japan 2027 (Tokyo, March 9–12, 2027) are expected to further raise the profile of Turkish figs and could translate into additional contracts for shipment in the first half of the year, particularly in retail and ingredient channels.

• Importers/roasters: Consider covering near- to medium-term needs at current stable FOB levels, especially for higher counts and organic qualities, as the combination of high quality and solid demand limits downside potential.
• Retail packers: Lock in volumes of premium natural and organic figs while quality is abundant; focus on securing consistent lots for branding rather than waiting for marginal price concessions.
• Producers/exporters: Maintain disciplined selling in line with Tariş benchmarks to prevent undercutting; prioritize high-growth Asian markets such as China and Japan to diversify away from traditional European dependence.

Short-Term Direction (3 Days)

• FOB Malatya (conventional dried figs): Sideways; prices are expected to remain stable given steady export interest and anchored farm-gate quotations.
• FOB İzmir (organic and specialty figs): Sideways to slightly firm; sustained niche demand and limited top-quality availability support current premiums.