Concise October 2026 fig market analysis: Turkish dried fig exports, FOB price indications, weather-related crop risks, demand trends and short-term outlook.
Turkish dried figs are enjoying robust overseas demand and leading Türkiye’s dried fruit export earnings, but recent frost and adverse weather have raised concerns over future crop availability and quality. Prices on key Turkish and Spanish FOB offers are broadly steady with only marginal adjustments, leaving the market finely balanced between strong demand and emerging supply risks.
International buying interest in dried figs, apricots and raisins remains firm, and Türkiye has already shipped over two hundred thousand tonnes of dried fruit and related products in the first nine months of 2026. Within this basket, dried figs are the top earner and a key price driver for the broader dried fruit complex. However, reports of frost damage and other unfavourable weather in some growing areas are starting to shape market sentiment, as exporters weigh solid demand against uncertain production prospects for the new marketing year.
Prices
FOB quotations for Turkish-origin dried figs are largely stable compared with late September, reflecting steady export demand and only minor grade-specific moves. In İzmir, organic Figs dried Mini are indicated at 16.15 EUR FOB, with Fig Protoben No. 4/5 at 15.65 EUR FOB and organic Lerida No. 4 at 14.90 EUR FOB. Non-organic chopped figs (whole No. 8/9) stand around 10.80 EUR FOB, while organic fig cubes are offered near 9.70 EUR FOB.
From Malatya, non-organic natural dried figs show a relatively flat structure, ranging from 7.80 EUR FOB (no. 6, natural) up to 9.60 EUR FOB (no. 1, natural), with Lerida-type non-organic offers mostly between 6.10 and 7.50 EUR FOB across sizes. Spanish organic Figs Spanish Gold are quoted around 10.95 EUR FOB Madrid, slightly firmer than earlier this month and maintaining a premium to most Turkish non-organic Lerida grades.
Supply & Demand
Türkiye’s dried fruit complex generated more than $1.13 billion in export revenue in January–September 2026, on shipments of about 231,434 tonnes. Dried figs were the single largest contributor, with earnings of approximately $353.17 million, ahead of dried apricots and raisins. This underscores the central role of Turkish figs in global dried fruit trade and explains why any disruption to Turkish supply quickly reverberates through international pricing.
In September alone, Türkiye exported roughly 35,137 tonnes of dried fruit and related products worth around $210.6 million, with dried figs again a major component. Market reports indicate diversified demand across Europe, the Middle East and other destinations, and recent trade commentary points to buyers in key regions rebuilding positions as the 2026/27 export season advances. At the same time, some external data show that European fig import volumes have softened from earlier peaks, suggesting that price-sensitive demand could cool if offers rise too sharply.
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Fundamentals & Weather
While current export flows are strong, production-side signals are more mixed. Growers and exporters report that frost and other adverse weather events have damaged crops in some Turkish fig-producing areas. This has sharpened focus on fruit quality selection, sorting losses and the potential for tighter availability of higher grades later in the season, even if aggregate export volumes remain solid.
Climatically, the Aegean region – core for Turkish fig production – is now moving through autumn, with Mediterranean conditions but increasing variability in wind and temperature. Recent seasonal assessments highlight that weather deviations during the fruit development and drying phases can materially influence size distribution, sugar levels and defect rates. Against this backdrop, exporters are prioritising quality improvement, closer cooperation with overseas buyers and broader market access to mitigate localized crop stress and safeguard long-term demand.
Outlook & Trading Guidance
Looking ahead to late October and into the winter shipping window, the performance of the fig market will hinge on three factors: confirmed crop availability after weather-related losses, buyers’ willingness to absorb current price levels, and competition from other dried fruits in blended product applications. Any meaningful downgrade in Turkish fig availability could quickly lift international price benchmarks, particularly for premium organic and larger-size categories.
Trading outlook
- Importers/roasters: Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs now in key Turkish grades (Mini, Protoben, Lerida) while FOB prices are broadly steady and origin still reports comfortable pipelines.
- Retail brand owners: Prioritise securing consistent-quality Turkish lots early, especially for organic and larger sizes, and keep pack weights and blends flexible to manage potential tightening later in the season.
- Exporters in Türkiye: Maintain disciplined offer strategies; avoid aggressive undercutting given ongoing weather-related uncertainty and monitor grade-out data closely before committing to long-term low-priced contracts.
Short-term price indication (3-day view)
| Origin / Product | Location | Delivery term | Latest quoted price (EUR) | 3-day directional outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figs dried Mini, organic (TR) | İzmir | FOB | 16.15 | Stable to slightly firm |
| Fig Protoben No. 4/5, organic (TR) | İzmir | FOB | 15.65 | Stable |
| Figs Lerida No. 4, organic (TR) | İzmir | FOB | 14.90 | Stable |
| Figs Spanish Gold, organic (ES) | Madrid | FOB | 10.95 | Stable |
Over the next three days, no sharp moves are expected on main Turkish and Spanish fig references; modest upside risk persists if further weather-related supply issues emerge or if late-season buying intensifies.