Vietnam Coffee FOB Firm as New-Crop Pressure Builds Slowly

Vietnam arabica and robusta FOB Hanoi prices moved modestly higher week‑on‑week, bucking the softer tone on global terminals where London robusta eased on expectations of stronger origin supply into late Q4. Vietnam’s coffee market is edging into the new crop with exporters paying slightly higher differentials for clean, nearby parcels, especially higher‑screen robusta and top‑grade arabica. While ICE robusta futures in London have been choppy but overall softer in mid‑October, FOB indications out of Hanoi are holding firm, signalling limited farmer selling and still‑tight old‑crop stocks.

Prices

Vietnam FOB Hanoi quotations (EUR, updated 17 October 2026):

London robusta futures (Nov 2026, ICE Europe) closed around 3,414 USD/tonne on 16 October, rebounding 1.2% after a 3% drop the previous session, reflecting volatile global sentiment around upcoming supplies from Vietnam and Brazil.      

Supply, Demand & Vietnam Context

Vietnam remains the key driver for robusta: over the first eight months of 2026, robusta accounted for about 73% of the country’s coffee export revenue, underscoring its dominant role in global robusta supply.      

Official and trade commentary indicate that Vietnam’s coffee export values reached roughly 6.57 billion USD in the year to date, with shipments expected to rise into the final months of 2026 as new‑crop beans arrive and global roasters build year‑end cover.      

However, domestic prices softened in late September as the harvest approached, reflecting expectations of increased availability, before stabilising in October. Exporters now report a more balanced tone, with buyers cautious given the prospect of stronger Brazilian shipments weighing on international benchmarks.      

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Vietnam)

Recent weather analysis shows the wet season in Vietnam’s Central Highlands is gradually tapering as harvest begins, following a very wet August and September. Rainfall has eased to light‑to‑moderate levels, which is broadly favourable for cherry ripening and picking.      

Updated reports for mid‑October flag lingering concerns about quality: periods of prolonged wet weather during harvest can raise the risk of mould and uneven drying, potentially reducing exportable grades and lifting processing costs even if overall production volume remains adequate.      

Seasonal guidance for the Central Highlands suggests that conditions through October and November are likely to alternate between showers and drier windows rather than continuous heavy rain, implying manageable, but not negligible, weather risk for the early part of the robusta campaign.      

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global terminal prices: ICE London robusta is trading in the mid‑3,000s USD/tonne, off recent highs but still historically elevated, as traders weigh a strong Brazil outlook against tightening robusta balance sheets and weather uncertainties in Vietnam.      
• Vietnam export dynamics: Government and industry sources expect export volumes to rise into Q4 as fresh beans become available, though September data already show export prices easing year‑on‑year, suggesting some downward pressure from global supply growth.      
• Weather & El Niño watch: Specialist climate tracking points to El Niño‑linked drought risk for parts of Vietnam later in the season, which, combined with concurrent weather risks in Brazil, could tighten the robusta market further if realised.      
• Quality spread: The firm tone in Vietnamese FOB prices for higher screens and wet‑polished robusta, despite softer futures, highlights ongoing demand for reliable origin and quality at a time when wetter harvest episodes raise grading risks.      

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View (Vietnam Focus)

• Roasters / importers: Use current firmness in Vietnamese differentials to lock in core Q4–Q1 robusta volumes while keeping price fixation flexible versus ICE London, given ongoing volatility and mixed fundamental signals.
• Exporters in Vietnam: Maintain disciplined forward sales; with FOB prices edging higher week‑on‑week and quality risks still in play, avoid over‑committing low differentials before more harvest evidence is available.
• Speculative participants: Watch El Niño commentary and incoming harvest quality reports closely; any confirmed downgrade in Vietnam’s robusta quality or yield could quickly reverse the recent softness in futures.

3‑day directional indication (region: Vietnam, FOB Hanoi):

• Arabica green, grades 1–2: Bias steady to slightly firm as limited exportable volume and strong specialty demand support current FOB levels.
• Robusta green, unwashed & wet‑polished: Bias steady; near‑term price moves likely to track London futures day‑to‑day, with local differentials broadly unchanged while harvest pace and weather are assessed.