Vietnam Coffee FOB Prices Hold Firm as Futures Turn Volatile
Vietnam FOB coffee prices remain firm despite volatile robusta futures. Tight local stocks, steady demand and benign weather support a stable short-term outlook.
Prices
Export prices in Hanoi for Vietnamese coffee are currently stable compared with a week ago, with no changes across key grades.
| Product | Specification | Location / Term | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Change vs. 12 Sep (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee beans | Robusta, green, wet polished (scr18) | Hanoi, FOB | 4.45 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Robusta, green, wet polished (scr16) | Hanoi, FOB | 4.15 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Robusta, green bean wet polished (scr13) | Hanoi, FOB | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Robusta, green bean, unwashed (scr18) | Hanoi, FOB | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Robusta, green bean unwashed (scr16) | Hanoi, FOB | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Robusta, green bean, unwashed (scr13) | Hanoi, FOB | 3.95 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Arabica, green bean, grade 1 | Hanoi, FOB | 7.85 | 0.00 |
| Coffee beans | Arabica, green bean, grade 2 | Hanoi, FOB | 6.80 | 0.00 |
The flat week‑on‑week move in these quotations contrasts with recent swings on the London ICE robusta contract, where nearby futures have risen or fallen by tens of USD per ton on changing views about global supply, ICE warehouse stocks and Brazilian output. Recent Vietnamese press point to domestic robusta farmgate prices near record territory despite futures corrections, underlining strong local support and constrained farmer selling.
Supply & Demand Drivers
Vietnam exported about 1.2 million tonnes of coffee in the first seven months of 2026, earning roughly USD 5.45 billion; volumes were up while export value declined year on year due to lower average prices, highlighting the impact of softer futures on revenue. The average export price in that period was reported around USD 4,537 per tonne, nearly 20% below the same period last year, even as absolute levels remain historically high.
Recent market commentary notes that robusta futures corrected in early September on growing expectations of ample global supply and higher ICE robusta stocks, which have reached their highest level in around nine months. However, reports focusing specifically on Vietnam underline that nearby physical stocks in the country are still tight, as farmers and local holders resist selling at lower price ideas, keeping FOB differentials relatively firm despite the corrections in the terminal market.
On the demand side, roasters in Europe and Asia continue to favor robusta in blends as a cost‑saving substitute for pricier arabica, reinforcing underlying consumption even as macroeconomic worries and high retail prices weigh somewhat on discretionary demand. This switching effect has been a key pillar supporting robusta over the past two seasons and remains in place, limiting downside for Vietnamese offers.
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Weather & Crop Conditions (Vietnam)
Short‑term weather in Vietnam’s main coffee belt (Central Highlands, including Buon Ma Thuot) over the coming three days is forecast to be warm, humid and generally cloudy, with highs around 31–32 °C and scattered light rain. This pattern is consistent with typical late‑wet‑season conditions and is broadly favorable for cherry development and soil moisture ahead of the 2026/27 harvest.
No acute heatwaves, flooding episodes or storm threats are signaled in the immediate 3‑day window for the key coffee provinces, implying limited short‑term weather risk to yield prospects. As a result, current Vietnamese FOB prices appear driven more by global futures dynamics and local stock tightness than by immediate weather stress.
Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
International reports over the past week highlight a divergence between futures prices and the physical market. Speculative selling in New York arabica on expectations of better Brazilian supply has pressured the arabica complex, while robusta has seen periodic rebounds when traders focus on ongoing tightness in Vietnamese supply and logistics.
Analysts note that when futures fall faster than origin sellers adjust their ideas, local liquidity can dry up and differentials can remain stubbornly firm. This is broadly consistent with the current pattern in Vietnam, where stable FOB quotes suggest exporters are in no rush to concede lower levels, especially with domestic prices still near historic highs and on‑farm stocks limited after strong early‑season shipments.
Trading Outlook
- Exporters: With FOB prices in Hanoi stable and differentials supported by tight nearby stocks, consider moderate forward coverage on confirmed sales rather than aggressively chasing volume at thinner margins. Maintain quality premiums on fine robusta and arabica grades, as buyers remain selective.
- Roasters / Importers: The flat week‑on‑week move in Vietnamese FOBs despite futures volatility suggests limited immediate downside. Buyers with open Q4 positions may use any further dips in ICE robusta as opportunities to lock in Vietnamese differentials rather than waiting for significant basis softening.
- Speculative participants: Futures‑only short strategies should account for the risk that persistent physical tightness in Vietnam and weather‑related headlines could trigger sharp short‑covering rallies, even without a clear change in fundamental balances.
3‑Day Price Direction: Key References
- Vietnam FOB robusta (Hanoi): With local raw material tight and no sudden shift in global headlines, export quotations are likely to remain broadly stable over the next three days.
- International robusta futures (ICE EU): Given recent volatility around supply news and ICE stocks, a sideways to slightly choppy pattern is expected in the very short term, with moves driven mainly by macro sentiment and speculative flows.
- Vietnam arabica FOB: Prices should stay steady to slightly firm, supported by relatively scarce local availability and still‑elevated global arabica levels despite the recent pressure in New York.