Vietnam Coffee FOB Prices Hold Firm as Futures Slide on Supply Pressure

Vietnamese FOB coffee prices are holding steady despite a sharp pullback on ICE robusta and arabica futures driven by rising supply pressure. Domestic farm-gate prices in the Central Highlands remain historically high, but momentum has stalled as traders reassess demand and hedge coverage after the recent price rally. Export offers from Vietnam for both robusta and arabica are flat week-on-week in EUR terms, even as London and New York futures retreated by around 1.5–4% over the last sessions. International news highlights growing concerns about increasing near-term availability and weaker speculative appetite, while Vietnam continues to expand exports and deepen sustainability partnerships with key markets. Weather in core producing provinces remains wet but not yet threatening for trees, suggesting limited short-term support from weather risk.

Prices

FOB Hanoi offers for Vietnamese coffee on 2 September 2026 were broadly unchanged versus the previous week, with robusta wet-polished (scr18) around EUR 4.40/kg, robusta wet-polished (scr16) at EUR 4.10/kg, and robusta unwashed (scr18) near EUR 4.05/kg. Arabica grade 1 and grade 2 held at roughly EUR 7.80/kg and EUR 6.75/kg respectively.

By contrast, ICE futures weakened notably in recent sessions. London robusta September 2026 fell about USD 55–61 to around USD 3,376–3,431/tonne, while November 2026 dropped roughly USD 55–68 to around USD 3,406–3,461/tonne. New York arabica September 2026 slid by more than 4% to about 328–342 US cts/lb, with December 2026 down nearly 3.7% to just below 3.00 USD/lb.

Supply & Demand

In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices in key producing provinces such as Đắk Lắk, Gia Lai and Lâm Đồng are reported around 95,000–95,700 VND/kg (roughly EUR 3.60–3.70/kg), still near recent peaks but little changed over the past few days, signalling balanced short-term buying.

Recent international coverage points to increasing supply pressure as exporters in Vietnam and other origins step up shipments following earlier weather-related delays. Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first seven months of 2026 reached about 1.2 million tonnes with export turnover of roughly USD 5.45 billion, underlining strong availability and robust demand from Germany, Italy and Japan.

At the same time, Vietnam is accelerating international partnerships to align coffee production with sustainability and stricter import rules (including EU deforestation regulations), which may affect future flow patterns but does not immediately constrain current supply.

Fundamentals & Weather

After a sharp rally in July, when London robusta rose above USD 4,000/tonne on tight certified stocks and weather concerns, speculative length has been trimming as inventory and export data confirm more comfortable near-term supply.

Short-term weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands remains seasonally wet. Forecasts for Đắk Lắk and Gia Lai from 3–5 September indicate continuing rain or drizzle with highs around 29–30°C, while Lâm Đồng is expected to see cloudy conditions with frequent showers and thunderstorms, highs around 25–26°C.

These conditions are generally supportive for tree moisture and cherry development and do not yet pose a significant threat from excessive rainfall. With the rainy season typically peaking around August and easing from October, current patterns suggest neutral-to-slightly-positive yield implications for the upcoming 2026/27 harvest, limiting weather-driven upside for prices in the immediate term.

3–5 Day Outlook & Trading View

Given flat FOB offers in Vietnam and the recent correction on ICE, the near-term bias for Vietnamese robusta and arabica is mildly downward in EUR terms, especially if futures continue to unwind risk premium and the euro remains relatively stable against the US dollar.

• Exporters: Consider modestly hedging Q4–Q1 shipments on further intraday rallies in London/NY, while keeping physical offer levels flexible to capture any renewed origin competition.
• Roasters/importers: Use the current pullback in futures to scale in coverage for late-2026 and early-2027 needs, prioritising high-quality Vietnamese robusta as differentials are steady and weather risk is contained for now.
• Producers: With domestic prices still high in VND, gradual forward sales into strength remain prudent, but avoid over-selling ahead of harvest in case of renewed weather or logistics disruptions.

3-Day Directional Price Indications (EUR)

• Vietnam FOB Hanoi robusta (scr18, wet-polished): Slightly softer bias, expected in a EUR 4.30–4.45/kg range over the next three days, tracking London.
• Vietnam FOB Hanoi arabica (grade 1): Mild downside risk toward EUR 7.60–7.80/kg if New York weakness persists.
• Vietnam farm-gate Central Highlands: Likely to hover near 94,000–96,000 VND/kg (approx. EUR 3.55–3.70/kg), with limited short-term movement while weather remains seasonally normal.