中国葵花籽：新作前的平静窗口，之后或迎来更大波动

当前中国带壳葵花籽及葵花仁价格整体处于稳中略软区间，买盘有限，高品质货源有小幅升水。关键风险在于未来：2026年种植面积下调，以及新疆、内蒙古潜在天气冲击，可能会让当下的平静，自秋季起演变为更为波动的市场。 当前中国葵花市场正处于季节性淡季。旧作库存正在消化，但品质在走弱，下游需求尚未真正启动中秋备货高峰。在新作大量上市之前的这个窗口期，价格大体持稳，普通等级略承受一定让价压力，而高品质的休闲和出口级产品则表现出更强的韧性。接下来真正需要关注的驱动因素，是未来7–8个月新疆/内蒙古的天气，以及2026年种植面积缩减的实际规模，两者共同决定新作开秤价格以及顶级货源的升水幅度。

Prices

截至2026年7月23日，北京FOB报价显示，中国条纹/黑壳葵花籽约在1.36欧元/公斤，脱壳葵花仁大多在1.13–1.25欧元/公斤之间，视品质及用途细分而定。过去三周内，条纹葵花籽自约1.33欧元/公斤小幅上行；休闲用葵花仁自约1.12升至1.13欧元/公斤；烘焙用葵花仁则自1.27略降至1.25欧元/公斤，整体印证市场横盘为主，带壳籽及高等级葵花仁略偏坚挺。

相比之下，乌克兰黑壳葵花籽FCA基辅和敖德萨报价稳定在约0.62欧元/公斤，欧盟27国葵花籽参考价在508–510欧元/吨附近（约0.51欧元/公斤），凸显中国休闲和烘焙用葵花产品，相对黑海及欧盟油籽产区的结构性价格溢价。  

Supply & Demand

Short term (late July–August 2026): quiet window, slightly weak undertone

市场处于新作上市前的“真空期”。旧作葵花籽库存在持续出清，品质有所滑落，而下游尚未启动大规模中秋备货。在此背景下，现货价格预计整体保持稳定，普通等级在卖方争夺有限需求时，存在一定小幅让价空间。高端休闲和出口级葵花产品则因可售货源偏紧、质量标准更严，价格支撑更好。

未来4–6周，国内的主要风险来自新疆和内蒙古地区灌浆期的天气。上述地区7月本就炎热，当前预报显示日最高气温多在30°C以上，且伴随阶段性降水。若出现持续高温少雨、局部干旱，或反向出现提早的冷空气过程，均可能压缩单产，并迅速引发优质货源在现货及远期市场上的价格冲高。  

Medium term (September–October 2026): heavier supply, then quality-driven divergence

自9月起，新作葵花籽将集中上市，对市场形成季节性压力。通常首轮收购期间价格会承压，今年在普通级别产品上大概率也会重演类似走势。不过，中国2026年食用葵花种植面积预计将缩减约26%，降至约650万亩。在种植面积减少的前提下，任何与天气相关的减产，都会较快收紧供需平衡，从而可能推高新作开秤价，使行情更多呈现震荡而非单边下行。

在此情景下，高等级与普通葵花之间的价差可能明显拉大。若中东和欧洲出口需求保持坚挺、国内买家持续向更高标准升级，优质与标准品之间出现0.13–0.26欧元/公斤（约1–2元人民币/公斤）的价差是有可能的。

Long term (2026/27): global abundance, domestic quality premium

全球层面，葵花籽产量预计将反弹，2025/26年度产量有望达到约5700万吨，主要由阿根廷及黑海地区丰产驱动。这一恢复已经体现在欧盟27国葵花籽及葵花油价格更为宽松，以及国际油籽整体偏弱的基调之中，尽管黑海地区的局部扰动仍会带来阶段性波动。  

对中国而言，更充裕的全球籽粒和葵花油供应，将对中低端食用型及油用品葵花形成上方压制，温和下移中期价格底部。与此同时，国内消费正不断向原味坚果零食、高规格及出口级葵花仁升级。这一结构性变化意味着，即便在全球供应充裕的环境下，满足欧盟和中东标准的高品质葵花产品仍将维持坚实的价格溢价。

Weather Outlook (Xinjiang & Inner Mongolia)

近期农业气象报告显示，北方草原地区（包括内蒙古部分区域）持续高温，局部土壤墒情偏紧。7月在气候上是全年最热月份，最高气温常在30°C以上，太阳辐射强，新疆南部温度则可能远高于此。  

在接下来1–2周内，市场需重点关注是否出现与灌浆期重叠的持续高温干旱天气，以及高纬度区域是否提前出现冷空气异常。任一情况都可能迅速引发对粒重和容重的担忧，从而支撑高含油、大粒型葵花籽的升水，即便标准品整体价格仍维持区间波动。

Fundamentals & Key Drivers

• Acreage contraction: A roughly 26% cut in 2026 edible sunflower area in China tightens medium-term supply and raises the probability that any yield shock will translate into disproportionate price moves.
• Inventory quality: Old-crop stocks are still present but with declining quality, which limits their ability to cap prices for high-specification product.
• Global supply recovery: Larger crops in Argentina and the Black Sea and steady EU stock levels help anchor international oil and seed prices, especially for industrial/oil-use sunflower.  
• Black Sea logistics risk: While structural exports of sunflower oil from Ukraine remain significant, port and infrastructure risks continue to inject event-driven volatility into global pricing, indirectly influencing Chinese import and export parity for some segments.  
• Demand mix shift: Domestic consumers are upgrading toward higher-grade snack and bakery products and importers in the Middle East and Europe are seeking consistent, high-quality Chinese kernels, reinforcing the long-term quality premium.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

Trading recommendations

• Processors / roasters (China): Use the current stable window to secure part of Q4 needs in high-quality raw material via forward contracts, while keeping some volume open to benefit from potential early-harvest pressure in September.
• Exporters (kernels & confection): Lock in margins on nearby shipments where FOB China offers remain competitive versus Black Sea and EU alternatives, but include weather-linked flex clauses or option structures for late Q4/Q1 positions.
• Importers (Middle East, EU): Consider gradual coverage of premium Chinese kernels before the main harvest; a sharp widening in quality spreads cannot be ruled out if Xinjiang/Inner Mongolia weather turns adverse.
• Producers (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia): For farmers with forward-selling options, staggered sales around harvest appear prudent, retaining some exposure to potential weather-driven rallies in top-grade segments.

3-day price indication (directional)

• CN Beijing, FOB striped/black sunflower seeds: Around EUR 1.35–1.38/kg; bias: sideways to slightly firm on tight high-quality supply.
• CN Beijing, FOB hulled kernels (confection & bakery): Around EUR 1.12–1.26/kg; bias: range-bound with mild support in confection, slight softness in bakery.
• UA Kyiv/Odesa, FCA black seeds: Around EUR 0.61–0.63/kg; bias: broadly stable with global oilseed sentiment and local logistics risks the main swing factors.
• EU-27 sunflowerseed (CPT/ref price): Around EUR 0.50–0.51/kg equivalent; bias: slightly soft, reflecting comfortable regional supply and competitive Black Sea offers.