Sugar Market Report – February 20, 2025
Sugar Prices Rise Amid Global Supply Concerns
ICE Sugar No.5 futures continued their upward trend, with the May 2025 contract rising 1.40% to $555.40/t. European sugar prices also increased, ranging between €0.56/kg and €0.58/kg FCA EU. The ongoing global supply squeeze, declining sugar production in key regions, and high ethanol demand keep prices firm.
1. Market Overview: ICE Sugar No.5 Futures
| Contract | Previous Price (USD/t) | Opening Price (USD/t) | High (USD/t) | Low (USD/t) | Closing Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 547.60 | 547.30 | 555.80 | 546.70 | 555.40 | +7.80 | +1.40% |
| Aug 25 | 528.70 | 528.70 | 536.30 | 528.20 | 535.80 | +7.10 | +1.33% |
| Oct 25 | 518.60 | 518.60 | 525.10 | 517.80 | 524.90 | +6.30 | +1.20% |
| Dec 25 | 513.10 | 513.50 | 519.00 | 512.90 | 518.90 | +5.80 | +1.12% |
| Mar 26 | 512.60 | 513.60 | 518.10 | 512.70 | 518.20 | +5.60 | +1.08% |
European Sugar Prices (FCA EU):
- Current price range: €0.56/kg – €0.58/kg
- Last month: €0.53/kg – €0.56/kg (+5.36%)
2. Key Market Drivers & Supply Factors
India’s Sugar Production Decline:
- India’s sugar output is forecasted to fall 17% in the 2024/25 season to 26.52 million tonnes.
- Closing stocks could drop below 4.50 million tonnes by September 30, 2025.
- Weather issues and disease outbreaks have severely impacted sugarcane yields.
EU Sugar Market – Tightening Stocks & Rising Prices:
- The EU’s sugar consumption has declined, but production shortages keep prices elevated.
- EU sugar imports from third countries remain high, but exports are stagnating.
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Brazil’s Export Delays:
- Shipping bottlenecks in Brazil are slowing down sugar exports.
- Ethanol demand remains high, diverting more sugarcane away from raw sugar production.
3. Sugar Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: Feb 21–23, 2025)
| Contract | Current Price (USD/t) | Forecast – Feb 21 | Forecast – Feb 22 | Forecast – Feb 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 555.40 | 558.20 (+0.5%) | 560.00 (+0.3%) | 562.50 (+0.4%) |
| Aug 25 | 535.80 | 537.60 (+0.3%) | 540.10 (+0.5%) | 542.80 (+0.5%) |
| Oct 25 | 524.90 | 526.50 (+0.3%) | 529.00 (+0.5%) | 531.50 (+0.5%) |
Key Takeaway: Prices are expected to remain firm due to tightening global stocks and high ethanol demand.
4. 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Sugar-Producing Regions
Brazil:
Wetter remains favourable, but logistics delays are affecting exports.
Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):
Temperatures: 27–31°C
Precipitation: Moderate rainfall in key cane areas, slowing harvest.
India:
Severe sugarcane disease outbreaks affecting output.
Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):
- Temperatures: 30–35°C (above seasonal norms).
- Dry conditions in key production areas, impacting late-season yields.
Thailand:
Low river levels reduce irrigation, affecting cane growth.
Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):
- Temperatures: 28–33°C
- Minimal rain, raising supply concerns.
5. Long-Term Sugar Market Data – EU Overview
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 16.3 | 17.5 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 2022/23 | 15.8 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 2023/24 | 15.1 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 15.5 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
Key Insights:
- EU sugar production is stabilizing after last year’s decline.
- Imports remain high as EU domestic output struggles to meet demand.
- Ethanol consumption continues to rise, tightening available sugar supplies.
6. Conclusion & Market Outlook
Key Takeaways:
Global sugar prices are rising due to lower production in India, Thailand, and Brazil.
EU sugar stocks remain tight, keeping prices elevated.
Ethanol production diverts more sugarcane, reducing supply for food markets.
Market Outlook (Next Weeks):
Prices are expected to stay firm as global stocks remain tight.
Watch for policy shifts in India and Brazil that may affect trade flows.
EU buyers may continue to face higher prices due to limited imports.
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