6-Month Sugar Price Forecast (June–November 2025)
Scenario-Based Projection Based on Market Fundamentals
🔮 Executive Summary:
The global sugar market is set to remain under downward pressure in the next 6 months, driven by a record global surplus, weak EU demand, aggressive Brazilian exports, and improving weather in key growing regions. Only a major weather disruption or an unexpected policy reversal (e.g., India reintroducing export bans or EU raising tariffs) could meaningfully reverse the bearish trend.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
🔍 Forecast Table – ICE Sugar No.5 Futures (USD/t & EUR/t, Aug 2025 Contract)
| Month | USD/t (Projected) | EUR/t (Projected) | Basis (EUR/USD 0.93) | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 475–485 | 442–451 | Technical support, harvest pressure from Brazil | |
| July | 470–480 | 437–446 | Peak Brazilian exports, weak ethanol parity | |
| August | 465–475 | 433–442 | India enters the market, ethanol policy deadlock continues | |
| September | 460–470 | 428–437 | EU import flows rise, no policy support for prices | |
| October | 465–475 | 433–442 | Seasonal demand picks up slightly (Diwali, EU baking) | |
| November | 470–480 | 437–446 | Pre-Christmas stock building, end of harvest tightening risk |
⚙️ Core Forecast Drivers
1. Supply Factors:
- Brazil: Record sugar output expected at >44.7 Mt, favourable weather, increasing allocation to sugar over ethanol.
- India: Sugar output rebound (35.3 Mt), surplus retained; no major policy support expected unless monsoon fails.
- EU: Beet acreage down 10% in France & Germany; harvest outlook improving slightly with current rainfall.
2. Demand Side:
- EU consumption continues structural decline (switch to sweeteners, lower baking output).
- Asia & MENA demand is stable but not strong enough to offset the oversupply.
- Retail prices remain disconnected from wholesale trends, reducing urgency for importers.
3. Stocks & Trade:
- Global ending stocks up >7%, especially in India, Brazil, and China.
- EU imports are rising from Brazil, Ukraine, and India due to favourable price arbitrage.
🌦️ Weather Outlook:
- Brazil: No drought or frost risk until Q4.
- India: Monsoon outlook “neutral to favourable”—early rains expected in Maharashtra.
- EU: Moisture levels improving; heatwave risk in July–August could affect beet yield.
🧭 Strategic Recommendations:
For Buyers:
- 🛒 Secure volumes through spot or short-term contracts under EUR 0.55/kg FCA.
- 🧮 Delay Q4 buying unless weather signals change; better terms expected later.
For Sellers:
- 📉 Reduce forward price targets (EUR 0.53–0.55/kg) to maintain volume flow.
- 📦 Focus on price-flexible contracts with strategic buyers (retailers, sweetener users).
For Traders:
- 📊 Short bias remains valid while ICE trades below USD 490/t.
- 🔁 Consider buying on dips <USD 470/t for short-term bounces during demand windows (e.g., Diwali, Q4 baking season).
This report contains forward-looking statements such as forecasts or expectations that are based on the current views and assumptions of management and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements.