📉 Oilseed Markets Remain Under Pressure as Trade Uncertainty and Supply Adjustments Continue
📍 Oilseed markets are caught in a push-and-pull scenario, with rapeseed futures continuing their downward trend while canola shows signs of recovery. Soybeans remain steady, as shifting global supply and trade disputes add to market uncertainty.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,016.00 | €342.84/t | +5.25 | +0.52% |
| July 2025 | 1,030.50 | €348.40/t | +5.50 | +0.54% |
| November 2025 | 1,043.50 | €353.10/t | +5.00 | +0.50% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 466.00 | -2.50 | -0.53% |
| August 2025 | 455.50 | -2.25 | -0.49% |
| November 2025 | 459.75 | -1.25 | -0.27% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 569.30 | €394/t | +8.80 | +1.55% |
| July 2025 | 582.40 | €403/t | +8.50 | +1.46% |
| November 2025 | 591.50 | €410/t | +6.70 | +1.13% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- China’s Trade Restrictions Disrupt Global Rapeseed and Canola Markets 🇨🇳📉
→ New tariffs on Canadian imports have intensified supply chain disruptions.
→ Traders are monitoring how China’s demand will shift in the coming months. - Soybean Processing Slowdown in the U.S. Raises Concerns 🏭
→ NOPA crush data fell short of expectations, signalling weaker demand.
→ Export activity is slowing, with shipments declining week-over-week. - Strong Brazilian Harvest and Rising Exports Fuel Market Uncertainty 🚢
→ Harvest pace is ahead of last year, keeping pressure on global prices.
→ Export figures continue to rise, reinforcing Brazil’s position in the global supply chain. - Shifting Planting Intentions in the U.S. 🌱
→ Initial expectations for more corn acreage may shift in favour of soybeans.
→ High fertilizer costs and trade disruptions could alter planting strategies.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Conditions Support Crop Development
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Moisture levels remain steady, supporting late-season growth.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate and stable.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Expected to continue, keeping soil conditions favourable.
- 🚨 Impact: Likely to support stable yields and prevent further losses.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Cautious sentiment as trade instability weighs on market confidence.
- Resistance Level: €480/t
- Support Level: €460/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €465 – €475/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Holding steady, but South American supply increases keep the upside limited.
- Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,005 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed and canola markets remain under pressure as trade tensions impact supply chains.
- Soybean demand is slowing, while Brazilian exports continue to rise.
- U.S. planting strategies may shift as farmers adjust to economic conditions.
🔮 Market focus remains on trade policy shifts and supply chain disruptions in key regions.