The Indian government has made its decision: no sugar exports until March 2024. The announcement aligns to ensure a robust domestic supply, keeping a steady hand on the price reins during the festive season. This decision resonates with various considerations, from projected sugarcane abundance to ethanol diversion.
As the new season kicks off on October 1, the government projects that sugar production will hold steady, mirroring the ongoing season’s yield. The prospect of higher availability of sugarcane next year, likely skewed towards ethanol production, fuels a parallel discourse. An inter-ministerial group, poised to recommend revised ethanol prices within a month, aims to balance the equation between sugar and ethanol demands.
In a harmonious interlude, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) releases preliminary estimates for the 2023-24 season. These estimates suggest a potential drop in output (after ethanol diversion) to 31.68 million tonnes from the ongoing season’s anticipated 32.8 million tonnes. A senior Food Ministry official lends his voice to this narrative, estimating that sugar production (after ethanol diversion) will dance around 32.5 million tonnes, almost in sync with the ongoing season.
Amidst the symphony of projections, Food Secretary steps into the limelight, quelling discordant notes. They emphasize that while the sugarcane acreage has expanded from 5.3 million hectares to 5.6 million hectares, determining next season’s sugar production is akin to gazing into a crystal ball. However, a portrait of stability in sugar prices for the upcoming festival season assures that the country holds around 10.8 million tonnes of sugar, while the demand for August and September hovers around 4.6-4.8 million tonnes.
In this cacophony of figures, projections, and market dynamics, the Indian sugar industry moves forward. The rhythm of sugar and its allied commodities promises a season of stability, echoing the harmony of prudent planning and insightful projections.