“Sugar Prices Stabilize After Recent Surge – Market Awaits Further Direction”
Closing Prices on February 5, 2025 (ICE Sugar No. 5) Converted to EUR
Using a USD/EUR exchange rate of 0.92, the latest closing prices for ICE Sugar No. 5 in EUR are as follows:
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 528.30 | 485.24 | +1.38 | +0.28% |
| May 2025 | 512.10 | 471.13 | +0.46 | +0.10% |
| August 2025 | 494.10 | 454.57 | +0.18 | +0.04% |
| October 2025 | 485.30 | 446.48 | +0.46 | +0.10% |
| December 2025 | 482.80 | 444.98 | +0.92 | +0.21% |
| March 2026 | 486.10 | 447.21 | +1.20 | +0.27% |
| May 2026 | 487.40 | 448.41 | +0.64 | +0.14% |
| August 2026 | 488.30 | 449.24 | +0.28 | +0.06% |
| October 2026 | 486.50 | 447.58 | +0.09 | +0.02% |
| December 2026 | 486.40 | 447.49 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| March 2027 | 488.00 | 449.20 | +0.09 | +0.02% |
| May 2027 | 485.40 | 446.57 | +0.09 | +0.02% |
| August 2027 | 485.20 | 446.38 | +0.09 | +0.02% |
| October 2027 | 484.50 | 445.74 | +0.09 | +0.02% |
Market Analysis: Sugar Prices Stabilize After Strong Gains
After a period of rapid price increases, sugar markets have now stabilized, with only minor gains across most contracts:
- Prices Remain Near Recent Highs:
- The March 2025 contract increased +0.28% to €485.24/t, reflecting some continued buying interest.
- The May 2025 contract gained +0.10% to €471.13/t, signalling a slowdown in momentum.
- Long-term contracts showed minimal movement, indicating a lack of new major buying pressure.
- Market Pauses After Indian Supply Concerns:
- The recent surge was driven by India’s production forecast downgrade, with estimates showing a 17% drop in 2024-25 sugar output.
- As global markets digest this information, traders await further confirmation of actual supply constraints before pushing higher prices.
- EU Sugar Market Remains Unchanged:
- Prices in the EU remain stable at €0.50/kg to €0.54/kg FCA EU, with low demand continuing to dominate the market.
- No immediate price increases are expected in the European market, as large buyers have already secured contracts.
- Estimates suggest that 30% of total sugar volumes remain uncovered, but buyers are hesitant to commit at current price levels.
Market Outlook: Where Will Prices Go Next?
📈 Bullish Scenario:
- If additional supply disruptions arise, speculative buying could push prices higher.
- The Easter demand period could still contribute to stronger purchasing activity.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
- If India’s export restrictions do not materialize, markets may adjust downward.
- A lack of new demand signals in the EU could keep prices steady or slightly lower.
🔍 Strategic Recommendations:
- Buyers should continue monitoring global production data before making large commitments.
- Producers should be cautious about holding unsold stock, as current price levels may be near a temporary peak.
Conclusion
After a sharp rally, the sugar market has entered a stabilization phase, with only minor price increases across contracts. The EU market remains calm, but global uncertainty surrounding India’s production and exports continues to keep traders on alert. If demand increases, prices could rise again, but for now, the market seems to be pausing before its next move.
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