📉 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Stabilizing, Export Prices Drop Due to Currency Shift 📉
📍 The Turkish hazelnut market stabilized this week after the sharp declines of the previous week. While demand remains low, export prices fell significantly due to a stronger Euro, driven by new economic stimulus plans in the EU. Frost damage reports remain localized, and the market has largely ignored these concerns for now.
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Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
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Hazelnut kernels
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Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 7.62 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 8.20 €/kg
(from TR)
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Change (1 Week) | Change (1 Year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic Raw Kernels (11-13 mm) | 8.61 | -0.22% | -4.10% |
| Conventional Raw Kernels (11-13 mm) | 7.77 | -0.27% | -4.10% |
| Organic Roasted Kernels | 9.72 | -0.18% | -4.10% |
| Roasted Kernels (2-4 mm) | 7.08 | 0.00% | -5.00% |
| Roasted Kernels (0-2 mm) | 6.38 | -0.06% | -5.50% |
| Hazelnut Paste | 5.86 | -0.12% | -6.00% |
🔹 Key Developments:
✅ Hazelnut prices stabilize after last week’s sharp drop.
✅ Export prices decline further due to the stronger Euro.
✅ Turkish Central Bank & ECB lower interest rates, impacting FX markets.
✅ Reports of frost damage in some regions, but the market has largely ignored them.
✅ Export price lists remain highly varied, with large differences between sellers and qualities.
🌍 Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 Hazelnut Prices Stabilize, but Demand Remains Weak
- The recent price drops have slowed, with buyers adopting a “wait-and-see” strategy.
- Short-term demand is below average, both domestically and for exports.
🔹 Export Prices Drop Due to FX Market Movements
- The Euro strengthened sharply after the EU and German government announced major economic stimulus programs.
- This led to a 4% appreciation of the Euro against the Turkish Lira, significantly affecting export price calculations.
- Additionally, both the ECB and Turkish Central Bank cut interest rates, further impacting FX markets.
🔹 Localized Frost Damage Reports
- Some regions reported minor frost damage to hazelnut orchards, but the market remains skeptical about any serious impact.
- A clearer picture will emerge by late April or early May.
🔹 Export Price Lists Show High Variability
- Large differences in pricing and quality levels persist.
- Buyers are encouraged to compare offers carefully before making purchases.
🔮 Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Expected Price Trends:
- 11-13 mm raw kernels: Likely stable, range: 7.70 – 7.85 €/kg.
- Smaller-caliber kernels & processed products: Possible slight declines if demand remains weak.
- Watch for further FX movements – any Lira depreciation could impact export prices.
⛅ Weather Trend (Next 14 Days)
🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Hazelnut Growing Regions
📍 Current:
❄️ Cool but moderate conditions, with no extreme frost expected.
🌡️ Daytime temperatures increasing slightly, nights remain cool.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures stabilizing at 7-15°C.
- 🌧️ Scattered rain showers expected, improving soil moisture.
- No major weather disruptions expected.
📉 Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
📍 Global Hazelnut Ending Stocks (Last 4 Years):
| Season | Global Stocks (1000 MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 486 | – |
| 2022/23 | 450 | -36 |
| 2023/24 | 440 | -10 |
| 2024/25 (Projected) | 420 | -20 |
📍 Turkish Hazelnut Production & Forecast:
| Year | Production (1000 MT, in-shell) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 765 | – |
| 2023 | 740 | -3.3% |
| 2024 | 725 | -2.0% |
| 2025 (Forecast) | 700 – 740 | TBD |
🔹 Takeaways:
- Global stocks continue to decline, supporting long-term price stability.
- Turkey’s production trend remains slightly downward, reinforcing supply concerns.
🔍 Key Takeaways & Market Recommendations
📌 Summary:
✔️ Hazelnut prices stabilize after last week’s drop.
✔️ Export prices decrease further due to Euro appreciation.
✔️ Interest rate cuts impact financial markets.
✔️ Localized frost damage reports, but market remains unconcerned.
📈 Strategic Outlook:
➡️ Short-term: Prices for small kernels and processed products may decline slightly.
➡️ Medium-term: FX market movements will be crucial for price trends.
➡️ Long-term: Fundamentals remain firm with declining global stocks.
🔍 Actionable Insights:
💡 Buyers:
- Take advantage of lower export prices while the Euro remains strong.
- Monitor frost reports closely before making long-term commitments.
💡 Sellers:
- Whole kernels remain more stable, while small kernels and paste face pressure.
- FX-driven price changes should be factored into upcoming sales strategies.