📉 Sugar Prices Show Mixed Trends as Market Adjusts to Supply & Demand Shifts
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw mixed movements, with the May 2025 contract declining slightly by 0.34% to USD 562.90/t (EUR 523.50/t), while longer-term contracts posted moderate gains. Short-term demand concerns and technical adjustments weighed on near-term contracts, while speculative interest pushed longer-term contracts higher. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain stable at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, with no signs of an imminent price surge despite rising global markets.
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Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 562.90 | €523.50 | -1.90 | -1.77 | -0.34% |
| Aug 25 | 548.00 | €510.24 | +1.20 | +1.12 | +0.22% |
| Oct 25 | 540.00 | €503.88 | +3.50 | +3.26 | +0.65% |
| Dec 25 | 534.30 | €498.90 | +4.80 | +4.46 | +0.90% |
| Mar 26 | 531.30 | €496.11 | +4.60 | +4.28 | +0.87% |
| May 26 | 524.00 | €489.96 | +3.30 | +3.07 | +0.63% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Short-Term Weakness vs. Long-Term Strength 📉📈
- May 2025 futures declined, reflecting immediate demand concerns and technical price adjustments.
- Longer-term contracts (Aug 2025 – Mar 2026) showed moderate gains, indicating that traders anticipate higher prices in the future.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Spot Prices Despite Higher Contract Offers 🇪🇺
- New contracts for the next season remain at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet demand remains insufficient to push current spot prices higher.
- EU sugar prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, reflecting continued oversupply and weak industrial demand.
🔹 Global Supply & Trade Outlook Remains Stable 🌎
- India’s production shortfalls persist, but no new export restrictions have been announced.
- Brazil & Thailand continue steady exports, preventing major price spikes.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (19.03 – 21.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 560 – 570 USD/t (520 – 529 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices are expected to stabilize, with short-term consolidation likely.
- Speculative buying in long-term contracts may continue, but fundamental demand remains weak.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing major price spikes.
- Imports continue to support supply, offsetting weaker domestic demand.
- Ethanol production remains steady, keeping sugar allocations stable.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Short-term sugar prices declined slightly, while longer-term contracts rose.
✅ EU market remains weak, with new contract prices struggling to gain traction.
✅ Global sugar supply remains well-balanced, preventing extreme price surges.
✅ Further market fluctuations are expected, but no major bullish signals yet.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Monitor market consolidation, as short-term dips may present buying opportunities.
🔹 Sellers: Longer-term contracts show more optimism, so securing future sales could be beneficial.
🔹 Traders: Watch for resistance levels near 570 USD/t (529 EUR/t) for potential reversals.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!