📉 Sugar Prices Decline as Market Faces Selling Pressure & Demand Concerns
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures sharply declined, with the May 2025 contract dropping by 0.99% to USD 557.40/t (EUR 518.38/t). Weak demand, profit-taking, and selling pressure continue to weigh on prices. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain unchanged, fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as the market fails to absorb oversupply despite producers pushing for higher contracts.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 557.40 | €518.38 | -5.50 | -5.12 | -0.99% |
| Aug 25 | 542.40 | €504.43 | -5.60 | -5.21 | -1.03% |
| Oct 25 | 535.50 | €497.02 | -4.50 | -4.17 | -0.84% |
| Dec 25 | 530.70 | €492.55 | -3.60 | -3.34 | -0.68% |
| Mar 26 | 528.70 | €490.69 | -2.60 | -2.42 | -0.49% |
| May 26 | 522.00 | €484.46 | -2.00 | -1.86 | -0.38% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Profit-Taking & Weak Demand Keep Pressure on Prices 📉
- Market sentiment remains bearish, with selling pressure from speculative traders.
- Demand remains weak, preventing any sustained price recovery.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Price Increase Despite Higher Contract Offers 🇪🇺
- New season contracts remain at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet demand is not strong enough to support higher spot prices.
- Polish sugar remains cheaper, keeping EU sugar prices between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA.
- Oversupply issues persist, as producers struggle to secure large contracts at higher rates.
🔹 Stable Global Sugar Supply Keeping Prices in Check 🌎
- India’s production is still lower, but export flows remain stable.
- Brazil & Thailand maintain steady exports, ensuring that global supply is not significantly affected.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (20.03 – 22.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 550 – 560 USD/t (512 – 522 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Further price declines are possible, unless demand strengthens.
- EU sugar prices remain capped by weak consumption & oversupply.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing major price swings.
- Imports continue to support supply, offsetting weaker domestic demand.
- Ethanol production remains unchanged, keeping sugar allocations steady.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices continue to decline due to weak demand and selling pressure.
✅ EU market remains oversupplied, preventing price increases.
✅ Global sugar supply remains stable, keeping upward momentum limited.
✅ Further market weakness is expected, unless demand improves significantly.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Monitor market corrections, as lower prices could provide better purchasing opportunities.
🔹 Sellers: Expect continued pressure, making strategic sales difficult.
🔹 Traders: Watch for support levels at 550 USD/t (512 EUR/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!