📈 Sugar Prices Rebound Strongly – Market Stabilizes After Sharp Correction
After a brief pullback, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures recovered across all contracts, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.17% to USD 564.00/t (EUR 524.52/t). The recovery is driven by speculative buying, technical support, and ongoing concerns about Indian and Thai production. In the EU, sugar prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as spot market demand remains weak, despite forward contracts being offered at EUR 0.62/kg.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 564.00 | €524.52 | +6.60 | +6.14 | +1.17% |
| Aug 25 | 548.90 | €510.48 | +6.50 | +6.05 | +1.18% |
| Oct 25 | 541.60 | €503.69 | +6.10 | +5.67 | +1.13% |
| Dec 25 | 536.30 | €498.76 | +5.60 | +5.21 | +1.04% |
| Mar 26 | 533.30 | €496.97 | +4.60 | +4.28 | +0.86% |
| May 26 | 526.10 | €489.28 | +4.10 | +3.81 | +0.78% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Market Stabilization After Correction 🌀
- Speculative buying returned after recent sell-offs, pushing prices higher.
- Technical support levels held, prompting short-term rebound across contracts.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: Forward Contracts Still at EUR 0.62/kg – But Spot Prices Unchanged 🇪🇺
- EU sugar producers continue offering new season contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, banking on tight supply and geopolitical risks.
- However, the spot market remains capped at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg, as industrial demand fails to justify price hikes.
- Overcapacity in the EU and competition from cheaper Polish sugar keep spot prices subdued.
🔹 Global Supply Concerns Persist 🌎
- India’s lower output and dry conditions in Thailand support market sentiment.
- Brazil’s exports remain stable, but logistical delays could pose short-term issues.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (21.03 – 23.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 560 – 570 USD/t (521 – 530 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices may consolidate around current levels, as technical resistance nears.
- Fundamentals remain mixed, with speculative interest supporting prices, but demand is still underwhelming.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices rebounded due to speculative interest and technical support.
✅ EU producers continue to offer high-priced forward contracts, but spot prices remain flat.
✅ Global supply is tightening modestly, but there is no immediate shortage risk.
✅ Market sentiment is cautious, and further volatility is likely.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: The spot market remains favourable – consider securing volume before potential volatility.
🔹 Sellers: Evaluate forward contracts strategically; higher offers may not hold in the current demand climate.
🔹 Traders: Watch resistance near 570 USD/t (530 EUR/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!