🔽Sugar market at a turning point – price surge fizzles out, demand remains weak
After last week’s strong fluctuations, ICE Sugar No. 5 prices reversed again. The May 2025 contract fell by 2.10% to USD 552.40/t on Friday, only to rebound to USD 564.00/t on Monday and then lose ground again to USD 552.40/t in today’s session. The market remains volatile, shaped by speculative flows and moderate demand. EU spot prices remain stable between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, while producers continue to push new crop contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA.
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Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices (USD/t)
Date: 21 March 2025
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Change (USD) | Change (%) | Closing Price (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 552.40 | -11.60 | -2.10% | 513.73 |
| Aug 25 | 539.20 | -9.70 | -1.80% | 501.46 |
| Oct 25 | 533.80 | -7.80 | -1.46% | 496.43 |
| Dec 25 | 529.60 | -6.70 | -1.27% | 492.53 |
| Mar 26 | 527.90 | -5.40 | -1.02% | 491.95 |
| May 26 | 521.30 | -4.80 | -0.92% | 484.81 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🌍 Market Drivers & Context
- Profit-taking and technical selling led to Friday’s losses.
- Today’s weak opening shows uncertainty, even after previous speculative buying.
- EU spot market remains oversupplied, despite claims from producers that prices must rise.
🇨🇪 EU Sugar Market
- Spot prices stay at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA.
- Polish sugar undercuts many Western EU offers.
- Producers still offer EUR 0.62/kg FCA for Q4/2025 contracts.
- But: “If they expect rising prices, why sell now?”
🌎 Global Supply & Demand Factors
- India & Thailand report reduced harvests, but exports remain stable.
- Brazil’s logistics are running smoothly, supporting overall supply.
- No extreme tightness observed – global trade is balanced.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (25 – 27 March 2025)
| Day | Expected Range (USD/t) | Expected Range (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar | 550 – 560 | 511 – 521 |
| 26 Mar | 548 – 558 | 509 – 519 |
| 27 Mar | 545 – 555 | 507 – 516 |
Outlook: Without clear demand or supply shocks, the market is likely to remain volatile within this band. Profit-taking and speculative flows dominate.
📉 Fundamentals: Global Balance Sheet
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25f | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🔍 Conclusion & Strategy
- ✅ Prices remain highly volatile and driven by technical flows.
- ❌ EU producers have little pricing power in the spot market.
- 📈 Forward offers above EUR 0.62/kg remain speculative and unsupported by current demand.
🔹 Recommendations:
- Buyers: Secure coverage gradually; no urgency.
- Sellers: Use short-term rallies for hedging.
- Traders: Watch support at 550 USD/t (EUR 511/t) and resistance at 570 USD/t (EUR 530/t).
🚀 Stay alert – markets remain in tactical territory.