📉 Sugar Prices Ease Again – Market Reacts Cautiously After Short Recovery
After a mild rebound, ICE Sugar No. 5 prices fell again on 26 March 2025. The May 2025 contract dropped by 0.81% to USD 540.30/t (EUR 502.48/t), with similar losses across all maturities. Despite continued volatility, the spot market in the EU remains unmoved, reflecting weak demand and a growing disconnect between wholesale and retail dynamics.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices – 26 March 2025
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 540.30 | -0.81% | 502.48 |
| Aug 25 | 531.20 | -0.49% | 494.02 |
| Oct 25 | 526.80 | -0.38% | 489.92 |
| Dec 25 | 523.70 | -0.32% | 487.04 |
| Mar 26 | 522.80 | -0.36% | 486.20 |
| May 26 | 518.00 | -0.27% | 481.74 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🌍 Market Drivers & Developments
🔻 Mild Correction Following Weak Technical Signals
– Speculative activity weakened, and momentum stalled just below key resistance levels.
– Trading focused on short-term positions, mostly in May and August contracts.
📉 EU Market Still Disconnected
– Spot prices in the EU remain at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA, with little reaction to international movements.
– Retail prices in Eastern Europe continue to undercut wholesale narratives (e.g., EUR 0.37/kg in Poland).
– Producers’ efforts to enforce EUR 0.62/kg FCA forward prices remain ineffective.
🌦️ Global Supply Conditions Balanced
– No new production issues or export bottlenecks were reported.
– Brazil’s exports continue at a solid pace, while India and Thailand remain stable.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (27–29 March 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar | 535 – 545 | 498 – 507 |
| 28 Mar | 532 – 542 | 494 – 504 |
| 29 Mar | 530 – 540 | 492 – 502 |
📌 Outlook:
Short-term volatility will likely remain in place, with no clear demand catalyst. Buyers continue to hold back as pricing remains erratic.
🧾 Global Sugar Fundamentals
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Sugar markets remain technically driven and sensitive to momentum shifts.
❌ The EU market shows no evidence of strengthening despite contract offers at EUR 0.62/kg.
📉 Retail dynamics and oversupply continue to undermine pricing power.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Continue to negotiate firmly – no fundamental reason to accept higher prices.
- 📦 Sellers: Only fix forward prices when linked to volumes or contracts.
- 📊 Traders: Watch for support around 535 USD/t (498 EUR/t) and resistance near 545 USD/t.
📍 Summary: Prices remain volatile, but the lack of real demand caps the upside.