📉 Sugar Prices Slip Again – Market Remains Under Pressure as EU Demand Fades
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures fell for the second day in a row. The May 2025 contract lost 0.46% to close at USD 537.80/t (EUR 500.15/t). Despite global supply stability, prices are declining due to a lack of fresh demand, fading speculative interest, and a stagnant EU spot market, which continues to resist higher prices despite forward offers at EUR 0.62/kg FCA.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Market Summary (27.03.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 537.80 | -0.46% | 500.15 |
| Aug 25 | 527.30 | -0.74% | 490.39 |
| Oct 25 | 522.30 | -0.86% | 485.74 |
| Dec 25 | 519.20 | -0.87% | 482.86 |
| Mar 26 | 518.30 | -0.87% | 482.02 |
| May 26 | 514.10 | -0.76% | 478.13 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Drivers & Commentary
📉 Technical Pressure Continues
– After the brief stabilization earlier in the week, the market is again slipping.
– No new buying momentum has emerged to support higher levels.
🇪🇺 EU Spot Market Remains Quiet
– Prices are still stuck at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Buyers remain cautious, while producers continue to float offers above EUR 0.60/kg – without traction.
– Retail disconnect persists, especially in Eastern Europe (e.g. offers at EUR 0.37/kg in Poland).
🌎 Global Supply Conditions Stable
– No additional weather or logistics concerns were reported.
– India and Brazil exports continue normally – the market is fundamentally well-supplied.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (28–30 March 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar | 530 – 540 | 493 – 502 |
| 29 Mar | 528 – 538 | 491 – 500 |
| 30 Mar | 525 – 535 | 488 – 498 |
📌 Outlook:
Short-term volatility continues. Prices will likely remain under pressure with no strong macro or weather triggers.
🧾 Global Sugar Balance Sheet
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Prices continue to decline – no support from fundamentals.
📉 EU spot demand remains soft, despite forward price rhetoric.
📦 Retail pressure from Eastern Europe continues to weigh on sentiment.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: No need to rush – price weakness may continue.
- 📈 Sellers: Focus on volume-linked forward contracts; avoid speculative pricing.
- 📊 Traders: Watch for support near 530 USD/t (493 EUR/t) – sentiment remains fragile.
📍 Confidence remains low – sugar’s recovery is still elusive.