📈 Sugar Prices Surge at Q2 Opening – Futures Jump Over 2% Across the Board
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures kicked off Q2 2025 with a strong rally. The May 2025 contract climbed by 2.02% to USD 545.90/t (EUR 507.69/t), with gains of over 2% in nearly all active agreements. While the movement reflects speculative optimism, physical demand in the EU remains muted, and spot prices have not followed.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Price Overview (01.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 545.90 | +2.02% | 507.69 |
| Aug 25 | 536.50 | +2.26% | 499.95 |
| Oct 25 | 531.70 | +2.20% | 494.48 |
| Dec 25 | 528.80 | +2.21% | 491.78 |
| Mar 26 | 527.40 | +2.22% | 490.48 |
| May 26 | 522.00 | +2.09% | 485.46 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🌍 Market Commentary & Drivers
📈 Strong Speculative Start into Q2
– Trading volumes were very high, especially in May and August contracts.
– The rally appears driven by technical momentum and fund positioning, not fundamentals.
🇪🇺 EU Market Reaction Absent
– Spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Forward offers above EUR 0.60/kg continue, but buyers remain defensive.
– The retail discount pricing environment (e.g., EUR 0.37/kg in Poland) continues to dominate sentiment.
🌎 Global Market View
– No fresh news from producing regions.
– Brazil’s harvest conditions remain favourable.
– India and Thailand report no disruptions.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (02–04 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 02 Apr | 540 – 550 | 502 – 511 |
| 03 Apr | 538 – 548 | 500 – 509 |
| 04 Apr | 535 – 545 | 498 – 507 |
📌 Outlook:
Expect continued volatility. Without fundamental support, the upside may be limited and prone to correction.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Strong technical breakout to start the new quarter.
❌ EU market remains unresponsive – the disconnect between paper and physical pricing widens.
📉 Retail pressure continues to weigh on confidence.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: No reason to follow futures higher – stay cautious and selective.
- 🏭 Sellers: Use this speculative rally to secure volume-linked contracts.
- 📊 Traders: Watch for profit-taking above 548 USD/t (510 EUR/t).
📍 Sugar is rising on charts – but not in warehouses.