📉 Global Sugar Prices Decline – But EU Producers Raise Prices Again
While ICE Sugar No. 5 futures declined for a second day, EU producers raised prices in the domestic market by EUR 0.02/kg, moving spot offers to EUR 0.52–0.55/kg FCA. The May 2025 ICE contract fell by 1.02% to USD 538.30/t (EUR 500.62/t), continuing the correction after speculative highs. The pricing gap between the global and EU markets grows wider, highlighting the protective impact of EU sugar tariffs—to the detriment of consumers.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (04.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 538.30 | -1.02% | 500.62 |
| Aug 25 | 526.80 | -1.29% | 489.92 |
| Oct 25 | 522.30 | -1.36% | 485.74 |
| Dec 25 | 519.70 | -1.33% | 483.32 |
| Mar 26 | 517.80 | -1.27% | 481.55 |
| May 26 | 512.60 | -1.17% | 476.72 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Drivers & Observations
📉 Global Market Under Pressure
– Prices declined across all maturities for a second consecutive session.
– Weak demand, technical correction, and no fresh fundamentals weighed on sentiment.
🇪🇺 EU Market Moves in the Opposite Direction
– Producers raised spot prices by EUR 0.02/kg, lifting FCA levels to EUR 0.52–0.55/kg.
– No change in consumer demand, but Schutzzölle (protective tariffs) allow producers to maintain high pricing.
– The disconnect between world and EU prices becomes increasingly evident.
⚖️ Who Pays the Price?
– Consumers in the EU face artificially inflated prices, while world market sugar becomes cheaper.
– Current conditions highlight the true cost of tariff protection for food processors and end-users.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (05–07 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr | 530 – 540 | 492 – 502 |
| 06 Apr | 528 – 538 | 490 – 500 |
| 07 Apr | 525 – 535 | 488 – 498 |
📌 Outlook:
Weak sentiment is likely to persist, with speculative positioning scaling back. EU prices are likely to stay high due to non-market factors.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Global sugar prices continue to fall.
❌ EU producers defy trend – increasing prices despite oversupply.
📉 Consumers bear the cost of EU trade policy.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers (EU): Question price increases – global prices don’t support them.
- 📦 Sellers: Leverage protection while it lasts – demand remains cautious.
- 📊 Traders: Stay defensive – volatility remains, but downside potential is limited near USD 530/t.
📍 Sugar remains a tale of two markets: open vs protected.