📉 Sugar Prices Fall Again – EU Market Remains Disconnected
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued to decline on 7 April 2025. The May 2025 contract closed at USD 533.90/t (-0.82%), with losses across all forward contracts. The market struggles with weak demand, technical exhaustion, and a continued lack of momentum in the physical market. EU spot prices remain elevated at EUR 0.52–0.55/kg FCA, driven more by protectionist structures than by market forces.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (07.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 533.90 | -0.82% | 496.53 |
| Aug 25 | 521.00 | -1.11% | 484.53 |
| Oct 25 | 516.80 | -1.06% | 480.62 |
| Dec 25 | 514.70 | -0.97% | 478.67 |
| Mar 26 | 513.20 | -0.90% | 477.28 |
| May 26 | 508.10 | -0.89% | 472.53 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Drivers & Commentary
🔻 Ongoing Weakness in Futures Market
– Futures remain under pressure after the early April spike faded.
– Momentum continues to weaken as speculative buyers exit.
🇪🇺 EU Market Remains Stable – But Expensive
– No change in spot pricing: EUR 0.52–0.55/kg FCA.
– Despite falling global futures, EU prices are propped up by tariff protection.
– Buyers remain hesitant, forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg FCA still face resistance.
🛍️ Retail Market Shows Growing Disconnect
– Supermarket shelf prices in Eastern Europe as low as EUR 0.37/kg, while industrial buyers are asked for over EUR 0.60/kg – a gap that raises more questions than confidence.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 08.04.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.69 € | Promotional price valid until 05.04.2025 |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Regular price for 1 kg Cukier biały |
| Austria | SPAR | 1.58 € | 0.79 € per 500 g Staubzucker |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | Price with Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promo price for Sucre cristallisé |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.79 € | Bonus price for 1 kg Kristalsuiker |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (08–10 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr | 525 – 535 | 488 – 498 |
| 09 Apr | 523 – 533 | 486 – 497 |
| 10 Apr | 520 – 530 | 483 – 495 |
📌 Outlook:
Continued weakness is expected unless technical support near USD 530/t holds.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Sugar prices drift lower – a trend still negative.
❌ EU prices out of sync – protected by tariffs, not demand.
📉 Producers struggle to justify forward pricing while retail undercuts continue.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Continue to push back against unjustified increases – global benchmarks are falling.
- 🏭 Sellers: Be cautious – price strength unsupported by market fundamentals.
- 📊 Traders: Watch 530 USD/t (494 EUR/t) as a key technical level.
📍 Sugar sentiment remains fragile – fundamentals and retail reality weigh heavily.
