📉 Sugar Prices Plunge – Market Reacts to Weak Fundamentals and Strong Supply
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures fell sharply across all contracts on 8 April 2025. The May 2025 contract dropped by 2.05% to USD 523.20/t (EUR 486.58/t), marking the biggest single-day decline in weeks. Despite this, EU producers continue to hold prices firm, raising spot offers again to EUR 0.53–0.56/kg FCA. The price gap between international and EU markets widens further, exposing the effects of tariff protection and sluggish demand.
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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (08.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 523.20 | -2.05% | 486.58 |
| Aug 25 | 511.10 | -1.94% | 475.32 |
| Oct 25 | 506.50 | -2.03% | 471.05 |
| Dec 25 | 503.90 | -2.14% | 468.63 |
| Mar 26 | 504.20 | -1.79% | 468.91 |
| May 26 | 500.50 | -1.52% | 465.47 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Observations
📉 Futures Under Heavy Selling Pressure
– Weak demand, high speculative positioning, and strong Brazilian flow pushed prices down.
– May futures traded on high volume, suggesting funds are actively reducing exposure.
🇪🇺 EU Prices Defy the Trend – Spot Offers Rise Again
– Despite falling world market prices, EU producers raised offers to EUR 0.53–0.56/kg FCA.
– This move appears unsustainable, especially with retail and global trends moving in the opposite direction.
🛍️ Retail Prices Stay Low in Eastern Europe
– Poland: EUR 0.42/kg
– Czech Republic: EUR 0.50/kg (Kaufland Card)
– German retail: EUR 0.69/kg (Edeka offer)
– France and the Netherlands remain significantly higher, but stable.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 08.04.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.69 € | Promotional price (valid until 05.04.) |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Standard shelf price |
| Austria | SPAR | 1.58 € | 0.79 €/500 g Staubzucker |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | With Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promotional offer |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.79 € | Bonus price |
🔮 3-Day Forecast (09–11 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr | 518 – 528 | 482 – 491 |
| 10 Apr | 515 – 525 | 479 – 489 |
| 11 Apr | 510 – 520 | 474 – 483 |
📌 Outlook:
Unless a demand recovery or export disruption emerges, the market is likely to drift lower in the short term.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Global sugar market correcting – demand remains fragile.
❌ EU prices disconnected from reality – upward adjustments not justified.
📉 The contrast between retail offers and producer ambitions continues to widen.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Use futures weakness to pressure spot offers – international prices argue for lower costs.
- 🏭 Sellers: Avoid raising prices without volumes – resistance from buyers is strong.
- 📊 Traders: Closely watch the USD 520/t (EUR 483/t) support zone – it may soon be tested again.
📍 Summary: The world market signals softness. EU pricing – artificially high – is increasingly unsustainable.
