Sugar Market Diverges Again – May Contract Rises as Rest of Curve Weakens

📉 Sugar Market Diverges Again – May Contract Rises as Rest of Curve Weakens

On 14 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 showed a split market, with the May 2025 contract gaining 0.83% to USD 527.40/t (EUR 490.48/t), while all other contracts closed in the red. The rebound in the front month appears to be driven by short-term technical positioning, while overall sentiment remains weak. Meanwhile, EU spot prices remain elevated at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, and market participants expect an increase to EUR 0.60/kg in the coming days.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (14.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
May 25	527.40	+0.83%	490.48
Aug 25	498.00	-1.10%	463.14
Oct 25	492.10	-1.22%	457.65
Dec 25	491.10	-1.18%	456.72
Mar 26	493.30	-1.03%	458.77
May 26	491.60	-0.79%	457.19

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Front Month Gains While Rest of Curve Sinks
– The May 2025 contract saw a modest gain, likely due to position squaring before expiry.
– The rest of the curve sold off, confirming that underlying sentiment remains bearish.

🇪🇺 EU Spot Prices Steady But Threaten to Rise Again
– Prices are unchanged at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, but traders report that EUR 0.60/kg will come this week.
– Buyers resist, citing low global prices and a weak demand outlook.

🛍️ Retail Prices Still Contradict High Spot Offers
– Most discount retailers hold prices at or below EUR 0.69/kg.
– Central and Eastern Europe continues to undercut with EUR 0.42–0.50/kg pricing.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 14.04.2025)

Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Promotional price (recently expired)
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	SPAR	1.58 €	0.79 €/500 g Staubzucker
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.79 €	Bonus price

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (15–17 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
15 Apr	518 – 528	482 – 491
16 Apr	515 – 525	479 – 488
17 Apr	512 – 522	476 – 485

📌 Outlook:
Further weakness in the back months is expected; the May contract could remain volatile due to expiry dynamics.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ May futures rebounded, but the curve remains under pressure.
❌ EU pricing is increasingly detached from fundamentals.
📉 Spot market remains tight only due to structural policy – not demand.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Be wary of new price increases – global trend argues for stability or declines.
• 📦 Sellers: Secure forward contracts only if backed by physical demand.
• 📊 Traders: Monitor expiry activity – back months offer clearer direction.

📍 Summary: EU prices may rise again – but the rest of the world isn’t following.

Current sugar price: 612 €/t CIF Hamburg
10-day trend: +2.3 %
As of: 14 April 2025