Sugar Prices Rebound – EU Producers Hint at Further Increases

📈 Sugar Prices Rebound – EU Producers Hint at Further Increases

After several days of steep losses, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures staged a technical rebound on 10 April 2025. The May 2025 contract gained 2.02% to close at USD 523.90/t (EUR 487.23/t). However, the recovery is widely seen as speculative short-covering, not supported by physical market fundamentals. EU spot prices remain elevated at EUR 0.53–0.56/kg FCA, and market participants expect another EUR 0.02/kg increase in the coming week.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (10.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
May 25	523.90	+2.02%	487.23
Aug 25	505.00	+1.23%	469.65
Oct 25	499.60	+1.08%	464.63
Dec 25	497.80	+1.04%	462.95
Mar 26	498.00	+0.88%	463.14
May 26	495.10	+0.75%	460.44

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Analysis

📈 Speculators Trigger Short-Term Rally
– After three days of losses, traders rushed to cover short positions, lifting prices quickly.
– The move is seen as technical and not based on changing fundamentals.

🇪🇺 EU Producers Hold Firm – And Plan to Raise Again
– Spot offers remain at EUR 0.53–0.56/kg FCA.
– Market chatter suggests another increase of EUR 0.02/kg is likely next week, despite falling global benchmarks.
– Producers justify price resilience with tariff protection and stock control.

🛒 Retail Prices Continue to Tell a Different Story
– Poland: EUR 0.42/kg, Czech Republic: EUR 0.50/kg
– Germany: EUR 0.69/kg (Edeka offer)
– France and the Netherlands remain above EUR 1.50/kg

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 17.04.2025)

Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	0.99 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.49 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	0.95 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (11–13 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
11 Apr	520 – 530	484 – 494
12 Apr	518 – 528	482 – 492
13 Apr	515 – 525	479 – 488

📌 Outlook:
Today’s rally may fade quickly if no fundamental support appears. Markets remain highly reactive and technically driven.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Futures recovered – but mostly on technical grounds.
❌ EU prices remain high and out of sync with the global trend.
📉 Retail levels continue to pressure industrial logic.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Don’t chase the rally – remain patient, especially in the EU market.
• 📦 Sellers: Use rebounds to secure forward contracts – but prepare for renewed pressure.
• 📊 Traders: Watch for reversal signs near USD 525–530/t.

📍 Summary: This rebound looks tactical, not structural. Sugar remains vulnerable.