Sugar Market Under Pressure – ICE No.5 Futures Slide Further as Sentiment Sours

📉 Sugar Market Under Pressure – ICE No.5 Futures Slide Further as Sentiment Sours

On 29 April 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 continued its downward slide. The August 2025 contract lost 1.71%, closing at USD 496.80/t (EUR 462.02/t). Forward prices dropped across all maturities, reflecting continued market fatigue, slow physical demand, and aggressive fund selling. Meanwhile, despite global weakness, EU FCA prices remain firm, at around EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (29.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	496.80	-1.71%	462.02
Oct 25	487.80	-1.74%	453.65
Dec 25	485.60	-1.59%	451.61
Mar 26	488.30	-1.33%	453.70
May 26	486.10	-1.01%	451.08
Aug 26	483.40	-0.89%	448.56

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📉 Risk-Off Mood Continues
– Another broad-based selloff across the forward curve.
– No bullish catalysts as macroeconomic concerns weigh on soft commodities.
– Brazil’s harvest is beginning to flow into global supply chains.

🇪🇺 EU Prices Still Unmoved
– Spot offers remain at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA, detached from international corrections.
– Tariff walls and low import quotas maintain EU insulation.

📉 Technical Note
– August 2025 contract approaches key support near USD 495/t. A break below could trigger further losses.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 29.04.2025)

Last verified within 3 days

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.89 €	Shelf price (standard)
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Fine crystal sugar
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promo price
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi price match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Prix Garantie sugar
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (30 April – 2 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
30 Apr	490 – 500	456 – 465
01 May	485 – 495	451 – 460
02 May	480 – 490	446 – 456

📌 Outlook:
Downside momentum remains dominant. Minor rebounds are possible, but sentiment stays weak unless macro or weather shocks emerge.

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📊 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Market dynamics still favour buyers – supply outweighs demand.
❌ EU spot prices remain excessively high compared to global levels.
⚠️ Technical levels approaching breaking points – volatility may increase.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Be patient, global pressure may unlock better deals.
• 📦 Sellers: Hedge aggressively; avoid speculative long exposure.
• 📊 Traders: Watch the USD 495/t line. A breakdown could accelerate losses.

📍 Summary: The downtrend continues, and sugar bulls remain on the defensive.