Soybeans Volatile Amid Trade Hopes and Biofuel Policy Uncertainty

🌱 Soybeans Volatile Amid Trade Hopes and Biofuel Policy Uncertainty

Soybean futures struggled on Tuesday but turned higher Wednesday morning as news of upcoming U.S.–China trade talks revived hopes. Meanwhile, biofuel policy delays and weak vegetable oil markets weighed on prices earlier in the week.

---

📊 Market Overview – May 6, 2025

📍 CBOT Soybeans (July 25)

Price (ct/bu)	EUR/t (approx.)	Change
1,041.25	~337 EUR/t	-4.25

📍 Early Trade – May 7, 2025

• Soybeans rose sharply in early Wednesday trading.
• No official prices at time of reporting, but double-digit gains noted.

---

🌍 Key Market Drivers

🇺🇸 Soybeans Dip on Tuesday, Rebound on Wednesday

• Tuesday’s losses were driven by falling soyoil prices and the lack of EPA biofuel mandates.
• Fears of weaker biodiesel demand pressured the entire oilseed complex.
• On Wednesday morning, soybeans jumped on news of high-level U.S.–China trade talks.

🇺🇸 Biofuel Policy: EPA Silence Fuels Uncertainty

• No new mandates have been released by the EPA regarding blending quotas for biofuels.
• Budget cuts proposed by the U.S. president triggered concern over future demand for soybean-based biodiesel.
• Traders fear reduced support for renewable energy programs.

🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks Scheduled

• News broke on Tuesday night about a planned meeting in Switzerland.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this weekend.
• The development fueled optimism and lifted prices on Wednesday.

🇨🇦 Canola Follows Soy Weakness

• ICE July canola futures fell CAD 8.00 to 693.70, pressured by soyoil and palm oil.
• November also declined to 655.90.
• Traders await Statistics Canada’s stocks report on Thursday.
• Expectations are for low inventories due to high processing and export pace.

🇧🇷 Brazil Expands Soybean Acreage

• Agroconsult estimates a 500,000 ha increase in soybean plantings for 2025/26.
• Planting begins in September.
• Current season: 47.8 million hectares harvested.

🇲🇾 Palm Oil Falls for Sixth Day, Eyes Now on May Output

• Malaysian July palm oil contract fell 35 MYR to 3,792 MYR/t (896.45 USD/t).
• Higher April output is already priced in.
• Market watching for May production trends.
• Early Wednesday trading remained negative in Kuala Lumpur.

🛢️ Crude Oil Recovers on Dollar Weakness and Supply Concerns

• Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened and traders closed short positions.
• The outlook for U.S. crude production dimmed amid low prices.
• Gains were capped by news of a truce in the Red Sea, which may ease shipping risks.