Rapeseed Slides Again Despite Strong Canola Rally in Canada

🌾 Rapeseed Slides Again Despite Strong Canola Rally in Canada

Rapeseed futures in Paris gave up gains from earlier in the week, despite a strong performance in Canadian canola contracts on tightening inventory expectations.

---

📊 Market Overview – May 8, 2025

📍 Euronext Rapeseed Futures (MATIF)

Contract	Price (€/t)	Change	Trend
Aug 25	469.00	–5.00	⬇️
Nov 25	473.50	0.00	➡️
Feb 26	476.25	0.00	➡️

📍 ICE Canola Futures (CAD/t)

Contract	Price (CAD/t)	Change	Trend
Jul 25	701.30	+7.60	⬆️
Nov 25	663.00	+7.10	⬆️
Jan 26	671.30	+6.50	⬆️

---

🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Fund Liquidation in Paris
  Managed money funds reduced their net-long positions in rapeseed futures and options from 24,490 to 19,638 contracts, triggering profit-taking.
• Weak Vegetable Oil Complex
  Continued pressure from declining soyoil and palm oil prices weighed on European rapeseed markets.
• Tighter Canadian Stocks Expected
  Anticipation of today’s Statistics Canada report boosted ICE canola prices. Analysts expect March 31 canola stocks to be around 6.09 million tons, significantly lower than the 9.58 million tons a year ago.
• Decoupling from Canola Gains
  Despite solid increases in Canadian canola, Euronext rapeseed lagged, reflecting weaker local fundamentals or technical resistance levels.

---

📈 Chart – Rapeseed vs. Canola Futures (08 May 2025)

The chart above compares key futures contracts for rapeseed (Euronext, €/t) and canola (ICE, CAD/t). While ICE Canola rallied sharply across all maturities, Euronext Rapeseed moved sideways to lower, highlighting a regional divergence in price dynamics.