Sugar Market Rebounds Sharply – Bullish Momentum Returns Across the Curve

📈 Sugar Market Rebounds Sharply – Bullish Momentum Returns Across the Curve

On 8 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures surged, posting the strongest single-day gains in over two weeks. The August 2025 contract rose 1.92% to USD 494.90/t (EUR 460.26/t). Broad-based buying interest pushed all contracts into positive territory. Despite strong technical support, EU spot prices remain resistant to change, hovering at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (08.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	494.90	+1.92%	460.26
Oct 25	485.70	+2.00%	451.70
Dec 25	484.00	+1.90%	450.12
Mar 26	486.90	+1.70%	453.82
May 26	486.00	+1.56%	452.98
Aug 26	484.90	+1.40%	451.96

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Strong Technical Rebound Across the Board
– Following a period of heavy losses, buyers stepped in aggressively.
– Momentum was supported by short-covering, possibly triggered by currency shifts and Brazil logistics headlines.

🇪🇺 EU Spot Market Remains Unmoved
– Despite global gains, FCA spot offers hold steady at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
– Buyers are sceptical, citing a growing disconnect with global pricing.

🛒 Retail Prices Stay Flat – No Signs of Pass-Through
– Consumer shelf prices remain well below industrial levels in nearly all European markets.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 08.05.2025)

Last verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.89 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (09–11 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
09 May	490 – 500	456 – 465
10 May	488 – 498	454 – 463
11 May	485 – 495	451 – 460

📌 Outlook:
Short-term momentum favours bulls, but the market may meet resistance without fundamental follow-through.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Strong bounce back across all maturities.
❌ EU spot prices remain overly firm – out of sync with consumer pricing.
📉 Without a clear fundamental shift, today’s rally may be short-lived.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Monitor rally cautiously – opportunity for renegotiation.
• 📦 Sellers: Use short-term momentum to lock in volumes.
• 📊 Traders: Watch for confirmation above USD 500/t to sustain the uptrend.

📍 Summary: Sugar futures surged, but the market structure remains weak beneath the surface. Watch Brazil and demand flows.