Rapeseed Rises Slightly – Global Outlook Remains Mixed

🌾 Rapeseed Rises Slightly – Global Outlook Remains Mixed

Rapeseed futures gained modestly on Thursday, but a weaker trend in Canadian canola and shifting global production estimates limited bullish momentum.

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📊 Market Overview – May 9, 2025

📍 Euronext Rapeseed Futures (MATIF)

📍 ICE Canola Futures (CAD/t)

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Support from Soy Complex: Rapeseed prices benefited from moderate gains in soybeans and a USDA export sale announcement.

• US–China Trade Talks in Focus: Renewed optimism over trade discussions added a supportive tone to oilseed markets.

  

• China Develops New Rapeseed Variety: “Zhongyou Zao No.1” promises 15% higher oil yields, faster growth (170 days), and up to 3.96 Mio t of new domestic oil potential.

• Global Rapeseed Outlook:

  • World production expected to fall 2% to 87.2 Mio t.

  • EU: Reduced area (5.6–6.0 Mio ha) yields 18.4–19.5 Mio t.

  • Ukraine: Down to 4.9 Mio t from 1.6 Mio ha.

  • India: Drought cuts acreage by 7.2%.

  • USA/Canada/Australia: Stable to higher yields expected, with U.S. area seen rising 8.3% due to biodiesel demand.