Soybean Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism – Eyes Now on WASDE

🌱 Soybean Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism – Eyes Now on WASDE

Soybean Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism – Eyes Now on WASDE

Soybeans ended last week slightly lower, but positive U.S.–China trade headlines and new export sales triggered a fresh rally as the market turns to Monday’s WASDE release.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

The July soybean contract on the CBOT closed Friday at 1,051.75 ct/bu, up 6.75 ct on the day but down 6.25 ct (–0.6%) over the week.

Futures opened strongly on Monday, with July gaining 13 ct to 1,064.75 ct/bu (~348 EUR/t) in early trade. Broad-based buying followed news of progress in U.S.–China trade talks and anticipation of updated USDA projections.

Contract	Price (ct/bu)	EUR/t (approx)	Change	Weekly
Jul 25	1,051.75	~344 EUR/t	+6.75	–6.25
May 25	1,046.00	~341 EUR/t	+2.00	–
Nov 25	1,045.75	~342 EUR/t	+15.25	–

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• U.S.–China Trade Breakthrough
  Negotiations in Switzerland ended with a joint statement:
  – The U.S. pledged to reduce the trade deficit
  – China agreed to a new economic dialogue platform
• Export Support
  USDA confirmed a private sale of 225,000 t of soybeans to Pakistan for 2025/26.
• Speculative Pressure
  CFTC data showed a sharp reduction in net-long soybean positions:
  – Down by 16,332 contracts to 21,870
  – Soymeal net-shorts hit a record 103,457 contracts
• Brazil/Argentina Outlook
  – Brazil’s April exports: 15.27 Mio t (+4% m/m & y/y)
  – May forecast: 12.6 Mio t (↓900,000 t vs April)
  – 2024/25 output estimates:
  • Brazil: 169.17 Mio t (+0.17)
  • Argentina: 49.25 Mio t

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The outlook is cautiously bullish as the market awaits the WASDE report. Fundamentals suggest:

• Strong U.S. export program
• Tight positioning by funds
• Positive macro environment post-trade news

Strategy:
Short-term buying opportunities may arise ahead of the WASDE release. Monitor volatility and fund flow closely.

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)

Date	Expected Range (ct/bu)	Forecast
May 14	1,055–1,065	⬆️ Moderate
May 15	1,050–1,068	⬆️ Volatile
May 16	1,048–1,062	➡️ Sideways

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Soybean Regions

Region	Trend	Notes
U.S. Midwest	🌤️ Dry & mild	Excellent planting weather – rapid progress
Mato Grosso (BR)	🌦️ Scattered rain	Ideal for final harvest stages
Argentina	☀️ Dry, stable	Supports late-season transport and logistics
China (Northeast)	🌧️ Cooler, wet	May delay early-season planting

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