📉 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Ease Post-INC, But Scepticism Remains 📉
📍 After the INC (International Nut Council) released the official 2025 harvest estimate of 609,000 MT, prices in the Turkish hazelnut market dropped sharply, falling from 215 TRY/kg to 195 TRY/kg. Although the figure aligned with pre-release rumours, many stakeholders doubt its accuracy. While the panic has subsided, the market remains tense, with exporters preparing for the 2025 crop cycle amid mixed global signals and residual scepticism.
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Hazelnut kernels
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📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Weekly Change | Quarterly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (organic) | €9.77 | -1.2% | +16.06% | +20.02% |
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (conventional) | €11.75 | -5.6% | +16.06% | +20.02% |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.98 | -3.8% | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.73 | -2.4% | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.77 | -0.4% | — | — |
| Hazelnut Paste (medium) | €7.54 | +0.11% | — | — |
📉 Market sentiment cooled after the crop number was released.
💱 TRY/EUR exchange rate remained stable.
🌍 Market Drivers & Developments
📊 INC Forecast and Market Scepticism
- Official INC figure: 609,000 MT, carry-over 150,000 MT = total 759,000 MT.
- Despite this, many local reports estimate a 30% reduction due to frost.
- The industry anticipates a potential downward revision of the forecast in the coming weeks.
🔁 Buyer and Seller Behaviour
- Buyers pulled back, waiting for prices to settle.
- Exporters returned cautiously, offering again but with wide price spreads.
- Farmers are still holding stocks, demanding >200 TRY/kg.
🌍 Global Dynamics
- Italy, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and the USA anticipate solid or improved harvests.
- Turkish exporters remain dominant in processed kernels, but origin diversification is increasing.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm | €11.60 – €11.90 |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.80 – €13.10 |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.50 – €7.70 |
📌 Upside Risk: Moderate – if INC data is revised downward.
📌 Downside Risk: Possible if global supply estimates prove reliable.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current Situation:
🌡️ Daytime temperatures rising to 16–21°C.
🌧️ Light rainfall expected mid-May.
🌱 Favourable for flowering, but the frost impact on nut-set is still unclear.
📉 Global Stock & Production Trends
| Crop Year | Global Stocks (MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 450,000 | — |
| 2023/24 | 440,000 | -10,000 |
| 2024/25e | 420,000 | -20,000 |
| 2025/26e | 389,000 (est.) | -31,000 |
| Estimated In-Shell Output (MT) | 2025/26 Forecast |
|---|---|
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 609,000 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 102,000 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 120,000 |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 75,000 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 65,000 |
🧠 Key Takeaways & Market Strategy
🔍 Key Themes:
- INC estimate creates temporary relief, but not full confidence.
- The market still lacks clarity on the actual damage and farmer behaviour.
- Exporters will position cautiously for the 2025 cycle.
🛒 Buyers:
- Evaluate short-term cover at reduced prices.
- Remain cautious, especially for Q3/Q4 needs.
📤 Sellers:
- Stabilise pricing strategy; watch for TMO decisions.
- Use pullback to adjust supply-side expectations.
📢 Reach out for tailored procurement strategies or post-INC positioning advice.
🎯 Why this format?
✔ Combines real-time price tracking with macro trends.
✔ Strategic clarity for sourcing decisions.
✔ Updated weekly – tailored to hazelnut traders.
📅 Next update expected May 17–20 based on market response to INC data.
