Rapeseed Retreats After Rally – Profit-Taking Caps Gains

🌾 Rapeseed Retreats After Rally – Profit-Taking Caps Gains

Rapeseed Retreats After Rally – Profit-Taking Caps Gains

After two days of strong gains, rapeseed futures slipped slightly on Wednesday as farmers locked in higher prices. Increased hedge selling led to the highest August turnover in two weeks.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

At the Euronext, rapeseed futures gave back part of their recent rally. The August 2025 contract fell by €5.50 to €484.00/t, with commercial hedging pressuring the market after sharp gains earlier this week.

Contract	Price (€/t)	Daily Change	Trend
Aug 25	484.00	–5.50	⬇️
Nov 25	487.75	–5.00*	⬇️
Feb 26	489.25	–5.50*	⬇️

*Estimates based on spread behaviour.

Meanwhile, ICE Canola showed mixed movement:

• Nearby months corrected slightly
• Deferred contracts (from Nov 25 onward) stabilised or firmed marginally

Contract	Price (CAD/t)	Change	Trend
Jul 25	721.50	–7.80	⬇️
Nov 25	692.10	+2.30	⬆️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Vegetable Oil Prices StabiliseSoyoil and palm oil gained early in the session, offering short-term support. However, Thursday morning saw renewed weakness.
• Heavy Hedge Selling
  High physical prices prompted increased farmer sales, which were hedged on Euronext, leading to a surge in traded volume.
• Soybean Market Still Strong
  Ongoing support from U.S. biofuel policy and trade talks underpins the oilseed complex, keeping downside limited.
• Crude Oil Correction Spills Over
  Weaker energy prices weighed slightly on sentiment in late trade.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The break in momentum is not necessarily bearish – it’s a technical pause following a breakout. The market remains firm above €480/t.

Strategy:
– Long positions can be held above €482/t support
– Monitor further farmer selling and oil market signals
– Watch for a possible rebound on Thursday if external oils recover

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)

Date	Expected Range (€/t)	Forecast
May 16	482–488	➡️ Neutral
May 17	480–487	⬇️ Slight Risk
May 20	481–489	➡️ Rebound Watch

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Rapeseed Regions

Region	Trend	Commentary
France	🌤️ Warm & dry	Slight moisture stress is possible next week
Germany/Poland	🌥️ More clouds	Mild & dry; soil moisture stable
Ukraine	☀️ Dry	Yields at risk without follow-up rain
Canada (Canola)	🌦️ Dry start	Sowing is ongoing, but dry weather in the Prairies persists

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