Soybeans Extend Rally – 10-Month High Reached Before Thursday Correction

Soybeans Extend Rally – 10-Month High Reached Before Thursday Correction

Soybeans posted a fifth consecutive gain on Wednesday, climbing to their highest level in nearly 10 months. The rally paused Thursday morning as crude oil weakness pressured vegetable oils.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

On Wednesday, the July 2025 soybean contract at the CBOT rose by 5.25 ct to 1,077.75 ct/bu (~355 EUR/t). This marked the fifth consecutive daily gain and the highest price since late July 2024.

However, early Thursday trading turned lower, with July down 9.50 ct to 1,068.25 ct/bu as crude oil and soyoil dropped significantly.

Contract	Price (ct/bu)	Change	EUR/t (approx)	Trend
Jul 25	1,077.75	+5.25	~355 EUR/t	⬆️
Aug 25	1,074.50	+3.50	~353 EUR/t	⬆️
Nov 25	1,061.25	+6.50	~349 EUR/t	⬆️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• 10-Month High Reached
  Traders priced in bullish U.S. fundamentals and optimism over future Chinese demand.
• US–China Relations
  President Trump expressed interest in direct talks with Xi Jinping to finalise a trade agreement. A 90-day window has opened following a partial tariff rollback.
• Vegetable Oil Surge (Then Reversal)
  – Soyoil rose early but collapsed Thursday morning, down over 5%
  – Palm oil followed higher, then softened
  – Lower crude oil prices weighed on overall sentiment
• Argentine Crop Update
  Rosario Grain Exchange raised its soy harvest estimate by 3 Mio t to 48.5 Mio t, nearly matching USDA’s 49 Mio t outlook.
• USDA Exports & Processing
  – Weekly export sales (due today): Analysts expect 200,000–500,000 t for 2024/25 and 350,000–500,000 t for the new crop.
  – NOPA crush (April): Forecast at 184.64 Mio bu, down 5.1% m/m, but up 9% y/y.
  – Soyoil stocks: Expected at 1.412 billion lbs

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The trend remains bullish but is showing signs of short-term fatigue after a 50+ ct rally. External market correlations (crude oil) need close monitoring.

Strategy:
– Short-term profit-taking is likely
– Momentum traders should adjust stops
– Watch NOPA and USDA sales data for direction confirmation

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)

Date	Expected Range (ct/bu)	Forecast
May 16	1,062–1,072	⬇️ Slight Pullback
May 17	1,060–1,070	➡️ Neutral
May 20	1,065–1,078	⬆️ Recovery Risk

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Soybean Regions

Region	Trend	Notes
U.S. Midwest	🌤️ Mostly dry	Excellent for planting – above average pace
Brazil	🌧️ Mixed	Ending harvest, some delays in the South
Argentina	☀️ Stable	No major threats; harvest nearing completion
China (Northeast)	🌦️ Showers	Slightly slowing planting progress

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