Sugar Market Slides Further – ICE Futures Extend Decline Below USD 490/t

Sugar Market Slides Further – ICE Futures Extend Decline Below USD 490/t

On 16 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures continued their downward trajectory. The August 2025 contract closed at USD 490.10/t (EUR 455.80/t), down 0.59%. The market has now lost nearly USD 20 since the recent peak. Meanwhile, EU FCA spot prices remain fixed at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, while internal EU price pressure continues to mount due to excess supply and competitive offers.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (16.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	490.10	-0.59%	455.80
Oct 25	486.80	-0.51%	452.72
Dec 25	486.50	-0.41%	452.44
Mar 26	489.50	-0.37%	455.17
May 26	487.50	-0.35%	453.38
Aug 26	484.90	-0.33%	450.96

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Insight – Price Gap Widens

📍 EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, despite global declines.
📉 Several EU producers have held prices steady, citing energy costs and tight contracts.
🇩🇪 German suppliers continue to push above EUR 0.60/kg – unsuccessfully, as buyers shift toward Polish and Dutch offers.
🧊 Physical market is inactive – few new forward contracts reported.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, as of 16.05.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Market Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.456	Based on USD 490.10/t
EU Spot FCA	0.56–0.59	No movement despite the futures decline
Retail Germany	0.69	Stable (Kaufland)
Retail Poland	0.42	Remains lowest

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (17–19 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
17 May	485 – 495	451 – 460
18 May	480 – 490	446 – 456
19 May	478 – 488	444 – 454

📌 Outlook:
Further downside is likely unless buyers re-enter or macro sentiment shifts.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 ICE futures continue softening, weighed by technical momentum and macro calm.
🇪🇺 EU spot prices are decoupled – holding at higher levels but facing growing pressure.
🛍️ Retail remains stable – no pass-through of volatility.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Strong position – press for lower FCA spot levels below EUR 0.57/kg.
• 📦 Sellers: Margin compression likely – flexibility will be rewarded.
• 📊 Traders: Monitor USD 488/t as short-term support; below that, momentum may accelerate.

📍 Summary:
The sugar market is cooling off – futures falling, EU holding, and real buying still on hold.