Sugar Market Drops Again – Demand Lacking as EU Price Hopes Fade

Sugar Market Drops Again – Demand Lacking as EU Price Hopes Fade

On 22 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw another sharp decline. The August 2025 contract dropped 1.97% to USD 488.10/t (EUR 453.93/t). Despite recent volatility, the market continues to lack demand support. In Europe, sugar producers dream of new campaign prices above EUR 0.60/kg, but analysts warn this is wishful thinking given shrinking EU consumption and mounting global competition.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (22.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	488.10	-1.97%	453.93
Oct 25	483.90	-1.84%	450.03
Dec 25	483.60	-1.53%	449.76
Mar 26	486.60	-1.23%	452.44
May 26	484.90	-1.07%	450.96
Aug 26	482.50	-1.02%	449.72

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Price Optimism vs. Reality

📉 Spot demand in the EU remains stagnant.
📍 FCA prices remain stuck at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
🇪🇺 Producers in several EU countries are now pushing for EUR 0.62–0.65/kg for the 2025/26 campaign.
🔍 Market analysts dismiss this optimism:

“EU sugar consumption is falling, global competition is intensifying. Where should the momentum for a price rally come from? Only sustained drought in Europe could push prices higher.”
🌦️ Some traders cite weather risks as the only possible catalyst for price recovery.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 22.05.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.454	Continues downward trend
EU Spot FCA	0.56–0.59	Still static – no new activity
EU Producer Ask	0.62–0.65	Campaign dreams – analysts sceptical
Retail Germany	0.69	No movement
Retail Poland	0.42	Market leader

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (23–25 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
23 May	483 – 493	449 – 458
24 May	480 – 490	446 – 456
25 May	478 – 488	444 – 454

📌 Outlook:
Without weather shocks or sudden buying interest, prices are expected to drift lower.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 ICE futures extend their slide as fundamental demand remains weak.
🧊 EU spot pricing is disconnected from global signals.
🌱 Weather is now the only wild card – prolonged dryness could trigger support.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Wait and negotiate below EUR 0.57/kg – the market favours you.
• 📦 Sellers: Curb campaign expectations – higher prices lack justification.
• 📊 Traders: Short-side still dominant – technical support near USD 480/t.

📍 Summary:
No fuel for a sustainable uptrend. EU dreams of price rallies face hard global realities – only the weather could help.