Sugar Prices Continue to Weaken – Market Lacks Support as EU Remains Silent
On 23 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued their downward trend for the sixth session in a row. The August 2025 contract lost 0.93% to USD 483.60/t (EUR 449.75/t). Despite falling futures, EU spot prices remain unchanged, with limited market activity. Analysts warn that without weather shocks, no catalyst for reversal is in sight.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (23.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 483.60 | -0.93% | 449.75 |
| Oct 25 | 480.20 | -0.77% | 446.58 |
| Dec 25 | 480.00 | -0.75% | 446.39 |
| Mar 26 | 483.70 | -0.60% | 449.84 |
| May 26 | 482.80 | -0.43% | 448.98 |
| Aug 26 | 481.20 | -0.27% | 447.52 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – No Movement, No Momentum
📍 FCA spot prices remain static at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
📦 No forward deals reported.
💬 Market observers call out unrealistic expectations for EUR 0.62+/kg for the new campaign.
🌱 Only prolonged drought could shift the tone, but no such signal yet.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 23.05.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.450 | New low–down ~50 USD from May high |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.56–0.59 | Unchanged – no volume reported |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Shelf price stable |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | EU-wide lowest verified price |
🔮 3-Day Forecast (24–26 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May | 478 – 488 | 444 – 454 |
| 25 May | 475 – 485 | 442 – 451 |
| 26 May | 470 – 480 | 437 – 447 |
📌 Outlook:
Without weather-related shocks, further softening is likely. Technical support is now eyed at USD 475/t.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 ICE Sugar continues to slide – no buyers, no bounce.
📦 EU producers resist lowering offers, but no deals close above EUR 0.59/kg.
🌾 Weather risk remains the only potential upside driver.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Remain cautious – prices are still trending down. Push below EUR 0.57/kg.
- 📦 Sellers: Lower expectations – volume is more important than price right now.
- 📊 Traders: Watch for bottoming near USD 475–478/t.
📍 Summary:
The sugar market is under pressure, and European supply chains are standing still. No catalyst, no change – only weather could shift sentiment.