Sugar Market Slides Sharply – August Contract Crashes Below USD 475/t
On 28 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures plunged across the curve. The August 2025 contract fell 2.38% to USD 471.40/t (EUR 438.40/t) – the lowest level in nearly four months. Ongoing pressure from record global harvests, muted EU demand, and a strong USD continue to weigh on the market.
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (28.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 471.40 | -2.38% | 438.40 |
| Oct 25 | 468.80 | -2.11% | 436.00 |
| Dec 25 | 470.60 | -1.78% | 437.66 |
| Mar 26 | 475.80 | -1.47% | 442.49 |
| May 26 | 476.50 | -1.11% | 443.13 |
| Aug 26 | 476.70 | -0.69% | 443.32 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Sentiment Weakens Further
📉 EU FCA spot prices remain at EUR 0.54–0.56/kg, with some reported offers slipping towards EUR 0.53/kg.
📦 Demand remains flat. Buyers cite sufficient stocks, high-intensity sweetener substitution, and uncertain price floor as reasons for their caution.
🔻 The gap between EU spot and ICE futures is narrowing.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 28.05.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.438 | New 2025 low |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.53–0.56 | Under pressure |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Still stable |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Below the EU wholesale spot level |
🌍 Global Drivers: Supply vs Sentiment
🌾 Brazil and India report excellent crop conditions and strong export flows.
💱 USD remains firm, lowering sugar competitiveness from non-dollar markets.
📉 Funds may have increased short exposure, triggering technical selling.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (29–31 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 29 May | 466 – 475 | 433 – 442 |
| 30 May | 463 – 472 | 430 – 439 |
| 31 May | 460 – 470 | 428 – 437 |
📌 Outlook:
Bearish bias persists. Support is expected near USD 465/t unless weather or trade dynamics change.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 The sugar market is in a technical downtrend, led by global supply pressure and demand stagnation.
🇪🇺 EU spot buyers remain in control, and forward demand remains thin.
🌦️ Without weather shocks or trade disruptions, the current trend may deepen.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Strong negotiation power – consider short-term coverage at spot levels under EUR 0.54/kg.
- 📦 Sellers: Avoid speculative pricing – focus on liquidity and flexible terms.
- 📊 Traders: Downside risk remains – watch for stabilisation signals before re-entry.
📍 Summary:
ICE sugar futures enter breakdown territory, with no meaningful buying support.