Sugar Market Stabilises – Modest Rebound After Six-Day Slide

Sugar Market Stabilises – Modest Rebound After Six-Day Slide

On 29 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures posted a mild rebound, with the August 2025 contract rising 0.46% to USD 473.60/t (EUR 440.45/t). After six consecutive losing sessions, technical buying and short-covering lifted prices slightly. However, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, and EU spot demand continues to show no signs of recovery.

---

📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (29.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	473.60	+0.46%	440.45
Oct 25	470.70	+0.40%	437.75
Dec 25	471.90	+0.28%	438.87
Mar 26	476.60	+0.17%	443.24
May 26	476.70	+0.04%	443.33
Aug 26	476.80	+0.02%	443.42

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

---

🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Buyers Remain Absent

📉 FCA spot prices remain soft at EUR 0.54–0.56/kg, with occasional offers seen at EUR 0.53/kg FCA, especially for larger lots.
📦 Several traders report ongoing pressure from excess stocks and low industrial absorption.
🌐 European refiners continue to resist price reductions, but sentiment is weakening.

---

🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 29.05.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

---

📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.440	Small bounce from multi-month low
EU Spot FCA	0.53–0.56	Still soft
Retail Germany	0.69	Stable
Retail Poland	0.42	Still below the EU wholesale level

---

🌍 Fundamental Outlook

🌾 Brazil’s and India’s crop outlooks remain favourable – no production concerns reported.
🚢 Export flows from Brazil continue to pressure global prices.
📉 Unless EU consumption improves or logistical constraints emerge, the upside is limited.

---

🔮 3-Day Forecast (30 May – 1 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
30 May	470 – 480	437 – 446
31 May	468 – 478	435 – 444
1 June	465 – 475	432 – 442

📌 Outlook:
The market may stabilise short term, but fundamental pressure remains.

---

🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar futures showed signs of stabilisation after six red sessions.
📦 EU spot remains weak, and buyers continue to delay purchases.
🧊 Without new demand or weather risks, the upside remains capped.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Continue cautious approach – expect more flexibility in offers below EUR 0.55/kg.
• 📦 Sellers: Hedge bounce carefully – avoid holding out for unrealistic price levels.
• 📊 Traders: Technical recovery possible – but likely limited to USD 478–480/t resistance.

📍 Summary:
The sugar market pauses its decline, but lacks any fundamental fuel for a sustainable rally.