Turkish Hazelnut Market โ Sellers Shift Tactics as Prices Temporarily Soften
Amid muted demand and surplus offers, Turkish hazelnut prices weakened this week across most product grades. Exporters who previously held firm have started to sell off consignment stock before month-end, aiming to influence prices downward. Buyers remain cautious, and most view 2025 crop offers as overpriced, holding back until further clarity emerges in mid-June.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
FOB 8.20 โฌ/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, meal
FOB 6.90 โฌ/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 8.71 โฌ/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 9.49 โฌ/kg
(from TR)
Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (โฌ/kg, DDP Europe) | Weekly Change | Quarterly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11โ13 mm (organic) | โฌ9.78 | -0.55 โฌ | +17.09% | +24.17% |
| Raw Kernels 11โ13 mm (conventional) | โฌ11.02 | -0.01 โฌ | +17.09% | +24.17% |
| Roasted Kernels 11โ13 mm | โฌ12.36 | -1.01 โฌ | โ | โ |
| Roasted Kernels 2โ4 mm | โฌ8.41 | -0.40 โฌ | โ | โ |
| Roasted Kernels 0โ2 mm | โฌ7.75 | -0.24 โฌ | โ | โ |
| Hazelnut Paste (medium) | โฌ7.47 | -0.15 โฌ | โ | โ |
Overall weekly price drop: -4.15%, largest single-week decline since February.
TRY/EUR remains stable โ no FX-driven price movement.
Market Drivers & Trends
Sellers Shift from Holding to Liquidation
- Exporters switch roles from buyers to sellers to pressure prices downward.
- May 31 marks the deadline for commission stock liquidation, pushing some to accept discounts.
Farmer Speculation Declines
- Pre-holiday liquidity needs (due to Kurban Bayramฤฑ) prompt some farmers to sell at lower prices.
- TMO has not yet intervened, despite expectations for a bullish auction.
Quality & Traceability Gaps Widen
- Heterogeneity in offers: Some exporters transparently label 2022 TMO stock; others blend or mislabel.
- Pricing of roasted and natural whole kernels is increasingly distorted due to quality gaps.
Buyer Behaviour
- Buyersโ focus shifts to 2025 crop, but price expectations remain misaligned.
- Many European buyers say, โIf itโs expensive now, itโll still be expensive later.โ
3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (โฌ/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11โ13 mm | โฌ10.80 โ โฌ11.10 |
| Roasted Kernels 11โ13 mm | โฌ12.10 โ โฌ12.50 |
| Hazelnut Paste | โฌ7.40 โ โฌ7.60 |
Upside Risk: Low until the post-Eid market reopens mid-June.
Downside Risk: Minimal after consignment stock clears.
14-Day Weather Trend โ Turkey (Black Sea Region)
Current Situation:
Temperatures are stable at 19โ24ยฐC.
Showers expected June 4โ7.
Continued monitoring for stinkbug impact, now entering critical nut-set phase.
Long-Term Production & Export Insights
- Exporters expect continued divergence between grades (premium vs. bulk).
- 2022 TMO stock still distorting the market for small kernel categories and paste.
- Global consumption forecast flat, especially in the confectionery industry.
Key Takeaways & Strategy
Key Themes:
- Price correction this week is not market-driven, but deadline-driven (end-May stock pressures).
- High-quality offers remain strong, with minor corrections, while low-grade quotes dropped most.
- June is expected to reset market expectations, especially as orchard health updates and revised forecasts emerge.
Buyers:
- Wait for post-Eid offers, better quality assessments expected.
- Avoid low-quality stock dumping, especially in broken and paste categories.
Sellers:
- Stabilise quality offers and prepare for mid-June reentry.
- Use the next 2 weeks to recalibrate export strategies and buyer dialogues.