Turmoil and anticipation are at the heart of today’s global raisin market. As the season wraps up, transactional activity on key exchanges has nearly ground to a halt, with farmers showing little interest in releasing their stored grapes. This reluctance is fueled by a prevailing consensus—prices are expected to rise further in the coming weeks. Notably, number 10 grapes are virtually absent, signaling the season’s end, while limited quantities of number 8 raisins are trading at premiums above historic norms, currently reaching €3,400/ton and showing upward momentum toward €3,500/ton.
Export data underscores this trend, as only around 3 tons changed hands last week according to exporters’ union records—a testament to direct farmer resistance against selling at current levels. Early new season offers are emerging, with number 9 sultanas commanding prices of €3,550/ton. Despite these high quotes, European buyers remain hesitant, signalling expectations of pricing adjustments post-holiday or by mid-July. Against this backdrop, weather outlooks and preparation for next season loom large, with all eyes on production prospects and whether the tight supply will persist or soften into the fall.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Raisins
sultanas, type 9, grade RTU
CIF 2.40 €/kg
(from TR)
Raisins
sultanas, type 9, grade a
FOB 3.50 €/kg
(from TR)
Raisins
sultanas, type 8, grade A
FOB 3.40 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Raisin Prices at a Glance
| Origin | Type / Grade | Location | Delivery | Price (€/kg) | Last Change | Sentiment | Offer Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TR | Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU | MALATYA | CIF | 2.40 | → | Stable | View |
| TR | Sultanas, type 9, grade a | MALATYA | FOB | 3.50 | ▲ +0.10 | Bullish | View |
| TR | Sultanas, type 8, grade A | MALATYA | FOB | 3.40 | ▲ +0.05 | Bullish | View |
| TR | Sultanas, type 10 | MALATYA | FOB | 3.90 | → | Out of stock | View |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Farmers are holding back stock, awaiting higher prices; trade volumes on exchanges are minimal.
- Number 8 sultanas are dominant in the spot market; number 10s are unavailable.
- New season price offers for number 9 at €3,550/ton, but buyers are hesitant.
- Export sales last week: only 3 tons, signaling severe farmer resistance to selling.
- Global alternatives (Iran, India, Chile) remain competitively priced but Turkish quality holds a premium.
📊 Fundamentals & External Influences
- Stock Situation: Turkish inventories are tight, pressuring spot prices.
- Speculative Positioning: Bulls dominate as buyers anticipate further tightness.
- Global Competition:
- Iran (FOB Tehran): €1.80–2.04/kg (dark to golden premium)
- India (FOB New Delhi): €1.42–1.93/kg (brown/black/golden)
- Chile (FCA NL): €2.41/kg (flame jumbo)
- Currency volatility and freight costs continue to impact CIF/FOB pricing.
☀️ Weather & New Season Outlook
- Anatolia: Weather conditions this month have seen above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall, potentially stressing grape maturation. If drought persists, yields may be negatively affected, supporting higher prices into the new season.
- Iran: Moderate spring, but some regions reported late spring frosts—prospective supply stable, but watch for localised yield impacts.
- India: Normal monsoon forecast, favourable for harvest.
- Market Impact: Any further adverse weather in Turkey before harvest can significantly accelerate price rallies.
📉 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Prod. (kt) | 2024/25 Est. Stocks (kt) | Current Market Prices (€ / kg, avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 280 | 40 | 3.4 |
| Iran | 110 | 18 | 1.9 |
| USA (CA) | 205 | 25 | 2.5* |
| India | 233 | 22 | 1.6 |
*Estimated based on web data; US prices recently firmed on export strength.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Exporters: Hold positions for possible gains as the market remains undersupplied and weather uncertainty lingers.
- For Importers: Consider partial coverage now to hedge against escalations, especially before new crop clarity in July.
- For Processors: Monitor new season offers; avoid overcommitting before post-holiday guidance in Europe.
- For Speculators: Upside still present, but volatility is high—tight stop losses advised.
📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Product | Location | Today (€ / kg) | 48h (€ / kg) | 72h (€ / kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sultanas type 9 | MALATYA (FOB) | 3.50 | 3.52 | 3.55 |
| Sultanas type 8 | MALATYA (FOB) | 3.40 | 3.42 | 3.45 |
| Sultanas type 9 | Dordrecht (FCA) | 2.80 | 2.82 | 2.85 |
| Sultanas type 9 (CN) | Hamburg (FCA) | 2.11 | 2.13 | 2.16 |
