Sugar Futures Rebound Further – EU Factories Face Mounting Pressure Despite Global Lift
On 3 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures extended their recovery for a third consecutive session. The August 2025 contract rose by 0.59% to USD 473.70/t (EUR 440.54/t). However, spot prices in the EU edged lower by 1–2 cents/kg, reflecting intense competitive and margin pressure on European sugar producers.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (03.06.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 473.70 | +0.59% | 440.54 |
| Oct 25 | 469.20 | +0.19% | 436.36 |
| Dec 25 | 471.00 | +0.19% | 438.03 |
| Mar 26 | 477.20 | +0.34% | 443.80 |
| May 26 | 478.20 | +0.38% | 444.73 |
| Aug 26 | 477.90 | +0.27% | 444.45 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
EU Market Snapshot – Spot Prices Erode Further
FCA spot prices in the EU fell slightly to EUR 0.52–0.55/kg, down 1–2 cents from last week.
Pressure is growing on EU producers as:
- Global supply remains ample
- Indian and Brazilian volumes flow aggressively into MENA and Asia
- EU processors struggle to maintain margins amid stagnant demand and discounting from Eastern Europe
Several traders describe the current situation as “price fatigue“—the market is oversupplied, buyers are inactive, and sellers are exposed.
Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 03.06.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.441 | Slight rise – supported by technical buying |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.52–0.55 | Slipping further under factory pressure |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Unchanged |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Below wholesale – aggressive competition |
Global Context
Brazilian exports remain strong with high shipping volumes.
India’s harvest outlook remains favourable – few domestic constraints.
The EU now faces a global market awash in supply while demand indicators remain neutral.
3-Day Forecast (4–6 June 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 4 June | 470 – 480 | 437 – 446 |
| 5 June | 468 – 478 | 435 – 444 |
| 6 June | 465 – 475 | 432 – 442 |
Outlook:
Near-term gains are likely to fade unless new physical interest emerges.
Conclusion & Strategy
ICE Sugar continues to recover, but is fundamentally fragile
EU spot shows no lift – in fact, factories are lowering prices to chase volumes
Margin stress is rising, especially in Western Europe
Recommendations:
Buyers: Take advantage of discounting – FCA levels under EUR 0.54/kg are realistic- Sellers: Rethink pricing strategy – Q3 contract pressure is growing
- Traders: Be cautious – short covering may be nearing its limit without new catalysts
Summary:
Futures rise, but the real market remains under stress. The EU sugar sector is feeling the squeeze, and June may bring further discounting.