Bullish Outlook for Sunflower: Prices Surge Amid Stable EU Crops, Forecast Eyes Weather Risks

The global sunflower market is turning heads this week, with notable gains and widespread stability across key regions. Spot and forward prices on SAFEX surged as much as 2.9% for June and July 2025 contracts—hitting 9,514 ZAR/t and 9,555 ZAR/t respectively—hinting at a bullish market sentiment strongly rooted in robust demand and tight stock perceptions. European growing regions are currently enjoying relatively stable and favourable cropping conditions, keeping supply pressure in check for now. Still, the looming weeks are critical; weather will play a key role in shaping yield expectations through the summer, particularly in the Black Sea and Eastern European regions.

Recent sideways moves for spot prices in Europe (e.g., 0.46–0.54 EUR/kg for seeds) illustrate steady trade but mask the undercurrent of concern around potential weather-driven volatility. As the world leans heavily on Ukraine, Russia, and the EU for sunflower seed and oil supplies, market players remain alert for any disruptions. This environment, combined with a rebound in global oilseed prices and shifting freight dynamics, adds another layer of complexity. In short, markets are dynamic and highly sensitive to both weather and policy risks this summer, and proactive strategies may be needed for both producers and buyers navigating the months ahead.

📈 Sunflower Market Prices

Exchange/Location	Contract/Product	Last Close	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
SAFEX	Sunflower Seeds Jun 25	9,514	+2.89%	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX	Sunflower Seeds Jul 25	9,555	+2.83%	ZAR/t	Bullish
Europe (DE)	Sunflower seeds black	0.46	0%	EUR/kg	Neutral
Europe (BG)	Sunflower seeds striped	0.54	0%	EUR/kg	Neutral
Europe (BG)	Sunflower seeds black	0.49	0%	EUR/kg	Neutral
Ukraine (UA)	Sunflower seeds black (Odessa, FCA)	0.52	0%	EUR/kg	Flat
China (CN)	Sunflower seeds black (FOB)	1.40	+4.48%	EUR/kg	Bullish
Ukraine (UA)	Sunflower Kernels Bakery	0.94	-5.05%	EUR/kg	Bearish
Europe (BG)	Sunflower kernels confectionery	1.13	-1.74%	EUR/kg	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Stocks & Exports: Ukraine and Russia remain the top global providers, with sizeable export volumes expected through 2025, but ongoing logistical constraints and recent policy discussions (export quotas/tariffs) add risk.
• European Crops: Conditions in the EU look stable, supporting optimism for average-to-good yields if near-term weather cooperates. No significant drought or flood events are currently reported.
• Crush Margins: Global sunflower oil demand is strong, with healthy crush margins in the Black Sea region fueling local processing. This supports farmers selling but may tighten raw seed supplies inland.
• Spec Positioning: Recent CFTC/commitment data show speculators have shifted to a neutral-to-bullish stance after low stocks data and limited selling, especially on South African and Euronext contracts.
• Spot Trade: Recent stability in EU and Ukrainian spot prices masks tight inventory concerns in parts of Asia and the Middle East, indicating robust pipelines for the next quarter.

📊 Fundamentals (Production & Stocks)

Country	2024/25 Prod. Est (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks Est (Mt)	Notes
Ukraine	16.5	1.9	Solid crop, good exports, risks: port security
Russia	17.0	2.5	Strong crop potential, policy risk on exports
EU	10.3	0.8	Stable conditions, yield hinges on July rainfall
Argentina	3.9	0.5	Dry weather is limiting expansion
China	2.7	0.3	Firm import demand, rising consumption

⛅ Weather Outlook (Key Growing Regions)

• Ukraine/Russia: Near-average precipitation, mild temperatures expected—favourable for flowering and seed filling in June-July. No acute drought risk, but localised storms in southern Russia could impact crops.
• EU (Hungary/Bulgaria/Romania): Weather is generally positive, with sufficient soil moisture. Forecasts indicate moderate warmth and rainy spells that are supportive of robust yield projections.
• Argentina: Persisting dryness and below-average rainfall, particularly in the north; expansion capped as a result.
• China: The main producing areas face hotter, drier conditions, and increasing reliance on imports if local yields fall short.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short Term: Bullish pricing on South African SAFEX signals tightness. In Europe/Ukraine, price stability masks supply risks from weather or policy shifts. Monitor weather and Black Sea export flows closely.
• Producers: Lock in portions of the new crop at current forward levels; consider weather insurance for main field zones. Note potential upside if EU/Ukraine weather turns adverse.
• End Users/Buyers: Cover nearby needs. Watch for dips in weather or logistical relief, but prioritise pipeline security, especially if Russia/Ukraine escalate export restrictions.
• Traders: Momentum is supportive for selective long positions; option hedges advised as volatility likely rises into July/August.
• Speculators: Monitor positioning—recent shift to net long could attract volatility on news shocks or revised crop forecasts.

🔬 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Spot	3-Day Forecast	Direction
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	9,514	9,500–9,650	Firm/Bullish
Europe (EUR/kg)	0.46–0.54	0.46–0.55	Steady to Slightly Firm
Ukraine (EUR/kg)	0.52–0.55	0.52–0.56	Stable to Slightly Firm
China (EUR/kg)	1.40	1.39–1.42	Bullish