Sugar Prices Rebound – ICE Futures Climb Back Toward USD 485

Sugar Prices Rebound – ICE Futures Climb Back Toward USD 485

On 19 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures staged a strong recovery. The August 2025 contract rose by 2.76% to USD 482.40/t (EUR 448.63/t), regaining most of the previous week’s losses. The move was driven by technical buying and pre-quarter-end position adjustments. However, EU spot prices remain soft, and there is no visible improvement in fundamental demand.

---

📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (19.06.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	482.40	+2.76%	448.63
Oct 25	469.00	+2.00%	436.17
Dec 25	463.20	+1.62%	430.78
Mar 26	465.60	+1.42%	432.01
May 26	467.50	+1.41%	433.78
Aug 26	468.30	+1.41%	434.52

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

---

🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – No Spot Price Reaction to Futures Rally

📉 EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.52/kg.
📦 Industrial demand is still sluggish. Most buyers remain well covered through Q3.
🧊 The recent rise in ICE prices has not affected spot offers – sellers are cautious, and buyers resist.

---

🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, as of 19.06.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

---

📊 Market Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.449	Highest close in over two weeks
EU Spot FCA	0.50–0.52	Unchanged – no confirmation from the physical side
Retail Germany	0.69	Stable, no consumer market reaction
Retail Poland	0.42	Remains well below the spot wholesale price

---

🌍 Market Drivers

• 📈 Strong technical rebound after recent lows
• 🧮 Positioning ahead of Q2 close may explain sudden momentum
• 🌾 No current supply threats from Brazil or India – harvests progressing well
• 📦 Market remains technically driven, not fundamentally supported

---

🔮 3-Day Outlook (20–22 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
20 June	478 – 486	445 – 452
21 June	475 – 483	442 – 449
22 June	472 – 481	439 – 447

📌 Outlook:
Futures may see short-term upside, but a reversal remains possible without physical confirmation.

---

🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Strong technical move driven by fund flows and positioning
📦 EU spot remains quiet – no reaction from physical buyers
⚠️ Further upside may be capped near USD 485–487/t unless supported by real demand

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Remain patient – spot prices are still soft and negotiable below EUR 0.52/kg
• 📦 Sellers: Use price recovery for selective Q3 hedging
• 📊 Traders: Monitor volume closely – breakout above USD 487/t needs confirmation

📍 Summary:
The sugar market rebounded sharply, but fundamentals remain unchanged. Unless spot markets follow, this move is likely a tactical correction rather than a trend change.