Soybean Market Update: Tight US Acreage, Mixed Crop Progress, and Firm International Prices

The global soybean market is at a critical juncture as the 2025 crop year unfolds. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop progress data reveals a small lag in US soybean planting and a rare year-on-year drop in intended soybean acreage. Simultaneously, robust international demand from major consumers such as China continues to support prices, even as some weather uncertainties remain in key producing regions. Notably, the USDA’s latest update indicates US soybean planting reached 96% by June 23, slightly below analyst expectations and the five-year average. Emergence is steady, and early flowering exceeds both last year and average levels.

However, crop condition ratings did not meet bullish analyst hopes. More consequentially, US planting intentions for the 2025 harvest are pegged at just 83.5 million acres, a drop of 4% year-on-year, raising the spectre of tighter supply ahead. On the international front, prices for Chinese and Indian soybeans have firmed modestly, while US export offers remain constrained by lower domestic bids. With growing season weather still a prime uncertainty—especially in the American Midwest and South America—the next few weeks will be crucial in determining yield prospects and market direction. For traders and industry stakeholders, caution is advised, but opportunities for well-timed hedging or strategic procurement abound in this dynamic situation.

📈 Prices: Latest Soybean Market Quotes

Origin	Type / Grade	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Change	Market Sentiment
China	Yellow, organic, 99.8%	Beijing	FOB	0.76	0.75	2025-06-24	+0.01	Firm/Bullish
China	Yellow, 99.5%	Beijing	FOB	0.68	0.68	2025-06-24	0.00	Steady
USA	No.2	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.34	0.32	2025-06-21	+0.02	Recovering
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi	FOB	0.72	0.70	2025-06-21	+0.02	Firm/Bullish
Ukraine	–	Odesa	FOB	0.35	0.35	2025-06-21	0.00	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• US Planting Progress: At 96%, below average (97%), supporting market nerves.
• Crop Emerging: Matching historical trends at 90% emergence.
• First Blooming: At 8%, above last year and historical (7%), hinting at a possible good start, but depending on summer weather.
• US Acreage: 83.5M acres intention for 2025, down 4% year/year—bullish medium term.
• Chinese Imports: Still robust, with a preference for both organic and conventional origins.
• Stock Levels: So far, little change, but potential for drawdowns if US yields disappoint or South America faces setbacks.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA updates show steadiness in crop conditions (Good-to-Excellent at 66%), but analyst expectations were higher.
• Speculative length in US soybean futures at moderate levels—higher potential for volatility should the weather turn adverse.
• Global inventories remain tight relative to historical averages, with heightened sensitivity to weather and export disruptions.
• March USDA intentions confirm a downward shift in the US production baseline for the coming year.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Analysis

• US Midwest: Current forecasts call for near-normal to slightly dry conditions over the next 7 days, especially in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Rain in the latter part of the week could support late-planted fields, but more moisture will be needed mid-July for optimal pod set.
• South America: Dryness lingers in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina, potentially affecting late crop quality and yields, though harvest there is largely complete. Watch for effects on storage and potential late export flows.
• India & Black Sea: No major weather threats; conditions stable.
• Overall: Weather is a key wild card—any deterioration in July/August could sharply raise price risk.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks (2024/2025)

Country	2024 Output (est. MMT)	Stock-to-Use Ratio	2025 Acreage/Intentions
USA	113.0	9.4%	83.5M acres (-4% YoY)
Brazil	153.0	13.7%	Similar/Flat
Argentina	53.0	7.2%	Modest Gain
China (Imports)	120.0 (imports)	N/A	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 Buyers: Secure medium-term needs on dips; consider coverage for Q3-Q4 as US acreage drop may tighten new crop supplies.
• 🟡 Traders: Maintain flexible positions; watch US weather and sudden speculative flows. Hedging near key support levels is prudent.
• 🔴 Producers: Monitor crop development closely and be ready to lock prices if US crop ratings deteriorate or South American weather raises export risks.
• ⚠️ All: Stay alert for USDA weekly updates and condition reports—volatility likely in July!

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, EUR/kg)

Origin	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
China (organic)	0.76	0.76	0.77	0.77	↑
China	0.68	0.68	0.68	0.69	→/↑
USA	0.34	0.34	0.34	0.35	↑

Price trend: Slight upward bias as the market digests lower US acreage and weather concerns.