Brazil Soybean Outlook 2025/26: Record Production, Export Surge, but Financing Strains Persist

Brazil Soybean Outlook 2025/26: Record Production, Export Surge, but Financing Strains Persist

Brazil is poised to hit a new all-time high in soybean production at 176 MMT in 2025/26, fueled by expanded planting, favourable weather, and strong export demand, particularly from China. However, rising input costs and high interest rates weigh on farmer margins and investment appetite.

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📊 1. Key Indicators Summary

Metric	2023/24	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (forecast)
Area harvested	46.15 Mha	47.6 Mha	49.1 Mha ↑ +3%
Production	154.5 MMT	169.5 MMT	176.0 MMT ↑ +3.8%
Average yield	3.35 t/ha	3.56 t/ha (record)	3.58 t/ha ↑
Soybean exports	108.3 MMT	114.0 MMT ↑ +5.3%
Soybean crush	57.0 MMT	58.0 MMT
Soybean oil production	11.5 MMT	11.6 MMT
Soybean meal production	43.5 MMT	43.9 MMT

 

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🌱 2. Area Expansion & Yield Performance

• Planted area for 2025/26: forecasted at 49.1 Mha, a 3% rise over the current year.
  • Driven by remote sensing discoveries and potential relaxation of the Soy Moratorium.
• Yield records:
  • Goiás: highest yielding state (4.12 t/ha).
  • Southeast Brazil: most productive region (3.97 t/ha).
  • MATOPIBA region: improving steadily (Bahia avg. 4.08 t/ha).
  • Rio Grande do Sul: worst hit by drought, yields fell to 2.08 t/ha (page 4).

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⚖️ 3. Policy & Environment

• Soy Moratorium debate intensifies: The Supreme Court allowed Mato Grosso to withhold tax benefits from participating firms starting January 2026.
• “Vazio Sanitário” (sanitary void) periods updated for all states to control Asian soybean rust (see table on page 6).
• Environmental licensing law (PL 2.159/2021) under review could fast-track infrastructure like roads, railways, and ethanol plants, unlocking BRL 8 billion in freight savings.

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💰 4. Economic Pressures

• Despite bumper crops, farmers face:
  • High interest rates (Selic up to 15%) – see chart on page 9.
  • Rising input costs (fertilisers, fuel).
  • Stagnating farmgate prices (down 2% YoY).
• Result: mounting loan defaults and judicial recovery filings.

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🌍 5. Trade: Brazil Tightens Grip on China Market

• China imported 16.9 MMT from Brazil in Q1 2025 (↑ 7%), while cutting U.S. imports by 8%.
• March 2025 was Brazil’s 2nd-highest monthly export to China (11.1 MMT).
• Port of Santos expansion (STS11 terminal by COFCO) to increase capacity from 3 MMT → 14.3 MMT in 2026.

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🏭 6. Domestic Demand: Crushing & Biofuel Drive

• Crush estimate raised to 58.0 MMT, up 2.1%.
• Drivers:
  • Livestock feed (meal).
  • Upcoming B15 biodiesel mandate (soy oil).
• Soy oil exports (Jan–May 2025): 658,000 MT (+30%), with India = 70% share.
• Soy meal exports (Jan–May 2025): 9.6 MMT, led by Indonesia, Thailand, EU.

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📦 7. Ending Stocks & Supply Chain

Product	Ending Stocks 2025/26
Soybeans	4.84 MMT
Soy oil	456,000 MT
Soy meal	1.35 MMT

Inventories remain tight due to strong export pull and steady domestic consumption.

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🧭 Conclusion & Outlook

• Brazil’s soybean sector is thriving in volume and productivity, but financial headwinds and policy uncertainty threaten long-term investment.
• The country’s position as a top global supplier to China is strengthening.
• Upcoming infrastructure upgrades and biodiesel mandates add positive structural momentum, if macro conditions improve.

Source: USDA