Sugar Reverses Gains – August Drops USD 10 on Heavy Selling
On 10 July 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures gave back nearly all of the previous session’s gains. The August 2025 contract fell 2.07% to USD 482.50/t (EUR 447.68/t) in a broad sell-off across the curve. A lack of follow-through from the physical market and technical resistance at USD 495 triggered a wave of long liquidation. Spot prices in the EU remain static.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
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Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (10.07.2025)
Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
---|---|---|---|
Aug 25 | 482.50 | -2.07% | 447.68 |
Oct 25 | 472.20 | -1.74% | 438.14 |
Dec 25 | 461.50 | -1.30% | 427.93 |
Mar 26 | 463.90 | -1.27% | 429.98 |
May 26 | 466.60 | -1.37% | 432.43 |
Aug 26 | 467.70 | -1.37% | 433.47 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.928 EUR – ECB reference 10.07.2025)
🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Stable, But Outlook Weakens
📦 Spot prices remain at EUR 0.52–0.54/kg FCA, unchanged for the sixth consecutive session.
📉 Traders report that selling interest is rising as EU stock levels remain high.
🔻 Sentiment is turning more bearish despite resilient retail pricing.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 10.07.2025)
Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
---|---|---|
Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
---|---|---|
ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.448 | Drop after resistance at 495 USD/t |
EU Spot FCA | 0.52–0.54 | Still firm – but downside risk growing |
Retail Germany | 0.69 | No changes – remains steady |
Retail Poland | 0.42 | Discounted – lowest in EU |
🌍 Market Drivers
- 📉 Technical rejection near USD 495 – selling accelerated
- 📦 Weak follow-through from physical buyers
- 🛢️ Energy prices flat – no ethanol-driven support
- 🇧🇷 No change in Brazil’s harvest outlook
🔮 3-Day Outlook (11–13 July 2025)
Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
---|---|---|
11 July | 475 – 485 | 440 – 449 |
12 July | 470 – 480 | 435 – 444 |
13 July | 468 – 478 | 433 – 443 |
📌 Outlook:
A weak close suggests that more downside is possible. Technical support is seen around USD 470/t. There is no fundamental support for a renewed rally unless physical off-take improves.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 Rally fizzled – ICE sugar retraces sharply after testing resistance
📦 Spot market unchanged – but softening tone behind the scenes
⚠️ Market caught in speculative swings – physical lagging
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Wait for clearer signs of stabilisation
- 📦 Sellers: Lock in forward contracts if support near USD 470 holds
- 📊 Traders: Tight range watch – USD 470/t is key technical level
📍 Summary:
ICE sugar futures reversed course sharply after testing technical resistance near USD 495/t. Without physical market support, the move proved unsustainable. Caution remains warranted.